Wednesday, 15 April 2026

Vietnam


Barrett on X: "The US just tried to pull Vietnam away from China… and it didn’t work. While Washington was busy pushing its Indo-Pacific strategy, talking about “partnerships” and quietly trying to turn Vietnam into the next anti-China supply chain hub, Hanoi just doubled down — publicly — https://t.co/uzTKXbowZI" / X  publicly — with Beijing. The timing says everything. Within days of taking office, Tô Lâm announces a visit to China, meeting Xi Jinping and reinforcing a “shared future” between the two countries. || The US wants Vietnam to replace China in global manufacturing. It wants deeper military ties. It wants Vietnam as part of a wider encirclement play in Asia. But here’s the reality nobody in Washington seems willing to admit: Vietnam’s economy is deeply plugged into China’s supply chain. Raw materials, components, machinery — it all flows through China. You don’t just “replace” that because a few politicians say so. ||And more importantly, Vietnam knows it. || You can talk geopolitics all day long, but factories run on logistics, not slogans. And right now, China is still the backbone of regional manufacturing — including Vietnam’s rise. ||So while the US tries to redraw the map, Vietnam is playing it smart — balancing where it can, but ultimately reinforcing the relationship that actually keeps its economy moving.|| This isn’t containment. This is reality. 5:25PM 14 April 2026

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Sunday, 12 April 2026

Iran USA peace negotiations

 

19 April 2026

🚨 "STRAIT OF HORMUZ — SATURDAY APRIL 18 UPDATE: 🇮🇷 Iranian ports — BLOCKADED by US Navy. 21 ships turned back since Monday. 🇮🇶 Basra crude exports — RESTRICTED. Iraqi supertanker turned back this morning. 🇦🇪 Dubai/Fujairah — "partial ops" — tankers loitering short of crossing. Don't be fooled. 🇧🇭 Bahrain — RESTRICTED. Port call volume down 60% from February. 🇰🇼 Kuwait terminals — RESTRICTED. Loadings delayed indefinitely. 🇸🇦 Ras Tanura — OPERATIONAL but insurance rates up 400%. Shippers refusing cargo. 🇶🇦 Ras Laffan LNG — RESTRICTED. Qatar's 77,000,000 ton/year export stream in limbo. 🇴🇲 Sohar — OVERWHELMED with rerouted cargo from the Gulf. 🇮🇳 Indian Navy — MOBILIZED. Two Indian-flagged vessels fired on today. Maersk — Persian Gulf sailings cancelled through May 1. MSC — Gulf region suspended indefinitely. CMA CGM — Middle East routes suspended pending ceasefire outcome. Hapag-Lloyd — still suspended. Lloyd's of London — Gulf war-risk coverage PULLED Friday night. The ceasefire expires Wednesday, April 22. This is DAY 6 of the US blockade. DAY 1 of Iran's re-closure. When this many ports and carriers pull out of a single waterway simultaneously, It's a collapse. i'm sitting on something right now that's going to shake your timeline.. hit follow before i drop it."


18 April 2026





Without naming the United States, Xi made it crystal clear: “A country obsessed with its hegemony does EVERYTHING to destroy anyone who progresses quickly. The one who advances becomes a target. The one who catches up… becomes a threat.” And he capped it off with the phrase that half the planet is applauding: “This is pointless. The world is a community with a shared future. People DO NOT want a new Cold War. They want PEACE and real security.” 🚨 Meanwhile, in the last 48 hours Trump: ✅ Blocked Iranian ports ✅ Attacked the Pope ✅ Fought with Meloni ✅ Threatened to abandon NATO ✅ And watched as Chinese oil tankers ignored his blockade… while oil prices already top $100 a barrel. Xi, on the other hand: signed trade deals with Spain, presented 4 peace points for the Middle East, and received the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi. One destroys alliances. The other builds them. One threatens the entire world. The other says: “We are on the right side of history.” The contrast is no longer subtle… it’s BRUTAL. 💥 Trump is being left alone. And the entire world has already noticed.  
Do you agree with Xi Jinping or do you think Trump is right?  12:26AM 18 April 2026

Dr. Brahma Chellaney on X: "My op-ed: Trump's naval blockades of Cuba and Iran persist. History offers sobering lessons about where such actions can lead. In 1962, the U.S. “quarantine” on Cuba led to the Cuban Missile Crisis, which brought the world to the brink of a calamitous U.S.-Soviet nuclear war." / X Two decades earlier, the U.S. had pursued a different form of economic strangulation: the 1941 oil embargo on Japan. Widely seen as the point of no return, it led to Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor — which, in turn, triggered a protracted Pacific War culminating in the U.S. nuclear destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. 12:55AM 18 April 2026


 مُنى حوّا • Muna Hawwa on X: "هاي مش تغريدة عادية أبدًا.. روبرت بيب هو عالم سياسة أمريكي بارز وأستاذ للعلوم السياسية في جامعة شيكاغو. يُعد من أهم الخبراء الاستراتيجيين في الولايات المتحدة في مجالات الأمن الدولي والقوة الجوية وسياسات الردع. يقول في تغريدة صادمة: إن إيران تبرز اليوم كـ (مركز قوة عالمي رابع) https://t.co/yaCh9l8BxD" / X This isn't an ordinary tweet at all.. Robert Pape is a prominent American political scientist and professor of political science at the University of Chicago. He is considered one of the most important strategic experts in the United States in the fields of international security, air power, and deterrence policies. In a shocking tweet, he says: Iran is emerging today as a (fourth global power center) to stand shoulder to shoulder with the United States, China, and Russia (!) Pape links this rise to Iran's exceptional ability to shape and craft decisions at the highest pyramid of the global system; surpassing the idea of pure military superiority. He adds that this shift, which was a stroke of fantasy before the war.. means the end of the monopoly on classical power: as geopolitical influence today transcends the size of the military arsenal.. Moreover, this is a frank acknowledgment of a new engineering for the region; for when an expert of this magnitude places Iran on par with the three great powers, this reflects a terrifying radical shift in the mindset of American think tanks.. The perspective is changing to move away from traditional containment efforts toward dealing with it as a fundamental pole in shaping the new global order. This academic proposition unravels the riddles of America's crude behavior recently.. as Washington has shifted to engineering deals and reining in its allies (specifically curbing Israel in Lebanon) through strict sovereign directives as an inevitable result of the deterrence equation imposed by Tehran on the American decision-maker.. The entrenched truth today is that the currency of power has changed.. The new global order is now being crafted exclusively to the measure of those who impose the rules of engagement and master turning strategic harm into political victory. 2:06AM 18 April 2026


Iran has just signed a historic agreement worth $52 billion in the energy and military sectors with BRICS countries, granting Tehran effective control over 45% of the world's vital oil routes, in addition to advanced defense cooperation. This agreement makes the imposition of any future Western sanctions nearly impossible and cements Iran's position as an unrivaled superpower in the Middle East. 
The United States is in a state of complete panic without any immediate response. Israel is now completely isolated, to the point that even its former allies are distancing themselves from it. Iran is the first bold nation to force America to submit and reshape the global order in real time! 4:05AM 18 April 2026


Since its involvement in the war on Iran, the United States has been seeking a way out that saves face, but Tehran has not granted it that. Hence, Trump declares that Tehran is being forced to accept, even though everything has gone according to what Iran wanted. 
No agreement has been reached yet. Everything announced from Washington regarding the nuclear program and other matters is nothing but a propagandistic interpretation of a clear reality: the United States has failed in the war, and it is compelled to accept the outcomes of that failure through negotiation.  5:21AM 18 April 2026

 "Iran has set three conditions for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz:
Only commercial vessels are allowed; military ships are prohibited, and vessels or cargo linked to hostile countries are not permitted. Ships must follow the route designated by Iran. Passage must be coordinated with Iranian forces responsible for the corridor. 
— According to an informed source (Tasnim). "   https://x.com/mog_russEN/status/2045226963862966548   5:44AM 18 April 2026

As we have said repeatedly when asked about the likely timeline for resolution of this conflict, the situation in the Middle East calls for cool heads, calm and diplomacy from New Zealand. Always conscious of the significant impacts the conflict is having on our country and wider region, New Zealand will continue to support all initiatives aimed at working towards a lasting, sustainable end to this war.
   5:49AM 18 April 2026


Marandi notes the danger of this narrative: "justifying another war" could be used by the White House to accuse Iran of "backing out of a deal," leaving Trump "no choice" but to restart the war. With U.S. troop movements increasing in the region, more ammunition flowing in, the chances for a military assault remain "actually quite high." We must look beyond the "string of crazy texts" to see if a darker path for the Middle East conflict is being paved. Watch the full analysis here: open.substack.com/pub/danieldavi
  9:35AM 18 April 2026

III. 1) Ceasefire in Lebanon and 2) the unfreezing of $20 Billion in Iranian overseas assets have enabled Tehran to honor its pledge as part of the original ceasefire to fully 'unblock' the Strait for all 'commercial' shipping.
IV. The actual implementation will have to be decided in the final deal, but per the 'Strait of Iran' comment and Iranian insistence, it appears Iran's precondition as to its full sovereignty, passage control, and tolling authority over the Strait will have been recognized by Washington. V. The Strait situation CANNOT return to before Feb 27th. Iran has discovered & demonstrated its leverage in the Strait of Hormuz, which it will continue to defend and can't relinquish even if it wanted to due to serious domestic backlash. VI. The bigger sticking point in the negotiations has always been the fate of the Iranian nuclear program and how to resolve Tehran's nuclear ambiguity after the 12-day war. VII. Iran's domestic knowledge base and its sovereign right to enrichment are irreversible, but Tehran is willing to make real compromises for trust-building within the limits provided in the 10-point framework. VIII. Importantly, this could include the controlled dilution of its 450 kg of 60% highly enriched uranium (HEU) to 20% & then under 5% under US supervision, as well as abandoning enrichment in older, underground facilities like Natanz for new above-ground ones where the US could have eyes and also be a stakeholder. IX. In exchange for this important concession, Tehran expects for all the secondary and primary US economic sanctions to be removed, permitting direct FDI flow into Iran to rebuild infrastructure damaged by the war, especially in energy and transportation sectors (Iran's commercial airline fleet is decimated). X. Iran has been advised by Chinese and Pakistani interlocutors that Trump must be allowed to use any potential deal as a face-saving measure and spin it as victory (hence the Araghchi post), but Iran also has many hardline domestic factions especially within the IRGC itself that seriously distrust the US/Israel and see this entire exercise as a preparation for the second half of the conflict. XI. After the Isfahan special op fiasco, Trump finally came to grasp that his Iranian predicament lacks a viable military solution. He is exhausted, knows the real systemic risks to global economy & petrodollar system, and genuinely wants to end the war on Iran. Facing a battered economy & tens of billions in damages, Tehran is also ready to play ball, but only if it can be reassured that the war won't return a few months down the road. Without concrete assurances, Iran will choose a long attritional war today to a cold peace. XII. To make any deal work then, the US & Iran need a non-aggression pact that finally acknowledges Iranian sovereignty full-stop, and removes the shadow of war and uncertainty from that country. China's role could become crucial here as Iran's ultimate security guarantor with both Washington and Beijing blessing Iran's regional middle power status. XIII. Trump's overblown antics & erratic behavior on social media is seriously jeopardizing the fragile truce and the future of the talks (not to mention
@JDVance
's credibility with the Iranians). This can be a win-win deal where both sides deliver on their redlines, but statesmanship and strategic empathy is crucial and in short supply.  
In sum, Iran's calculus hinges on sovereignty & recognition. 🇮🇷 has made important strategic gains that is willing to cash in on. 🇺🇸 should stop belittling the Iranians & use this opportunity for a historic reset. 10:22AM 18 April 2026

  "What a Day: Iran Controls the Strait, but Loses the Capital Market Cognitive War
A series of extraordinary events unfolded yesterday, April 17. But they didn't happen at sea. They didn't happen at the negotiating table. They happened in the capital markets. Let's break down what actually happened so we can understand what's really going on. Part 1: Background and What Happened (Statements and Market Response) 1. Iran's Foreign Minister Announces the Strait Opening Before trading opened (8:45 a.m. ET), Foreign Minister Araghchi posted: > "In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran." Looking back, no problem with post. But here's the thing: diplomatic language, market interpretation, perception warfare, and negotiation tactics all collided. Strictly speaking, the foreign minister said nothing incorrect, in terms of alignment with Iran's policy. But markets read it as huge good news — the strait is COMPLETELY open. 2. Trump Fires Off a Barrage of Posts (In Just Over an Hour) Trump posted more than a dozen times in just over an hour, with main messages: 1. Thanks Iran for "completely" opening the strait 2. Announces Iran has completely opened the strait for "normal transit and commercial activity" — while the U.S. maintains its naval blockade of Iran 3. Says the U.S. wants Iran's "nuclear dust" (400+ kilograms of enriched uranium) and won't pay money for it 4. Says Israel won't bomb Lebanon 5. Thanks Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Pakistan for their support 6. Says Iran is clearing all mines with U.S. help 7. Claims Iran agreed to never close the strait again 8. Calls it "a great and glorious day for the world" 9. Says NATO is a paper tiger All of this came from Trump alone. No corroboration from Iran or any third party. (And Iran denied it all later — same playbook as the previous weeks.) 3. Markets Interpret It as "The Wolf Has Come" — Oil Crashes, Stocks Soar With the Iranian foreign minister's statement first, then Trump adding massive commentary, the market saw credibility. Yes, the market must discount Trump claims, because he has made far too many lies. But with Iran's foreign minister apparently backing it up, markets decided it was real and amplified their interpretation. Stock indexes skyrocketed: - Dow Jones: +2.2% by midday - S&P 500: +1.3% - Nasdaq: +1.3% Oil prices crashed: - WTI crude: down ~14% - Brent crude: down ~12%, to $87/barrel Treasury yields fell: - 10-year Treasury: from 4.31% pre-market to 4.25% by midday 4. Iran Is Furious Here's why: Iran and the U.S. are fighting an economic war. In the short term, it's fought in the financial markets. Iran wanted to see U.S. oil prices rising and stocks falling. Instead, oil crashed and stocks surged — a total "loss" in the financial battle. Trump controls the flow of information. Over the past month, he's repeatedly flooded markets with false information and successfully manipulated them. Oil has been held high at $100/barrel, and stocks hit new records. Wall Street (disproportionally Jewish) tends to take Trump literally. Everything becomes good news. Fake news becomes real news. For Iran, there's little it can do against Trump's market manipulation and Wall Street's complicity. Iran's goal of pushing oil to $200/barrel is nowhere in sight. 5. A Twitter Firestorm Erupts — But in Persia During U.S. trading hours (afternoon to evening in Tehran), Persian-language media and social media exploded with criticism of the foreign minister's vague post. And Iran's state news agencies weigh in: - Mehr News: Araghchi's tweet "gave Trump the best opportunity to ignore reality, declare victory, and celebrate." - Tasnim News (tied to IRGC): Called it "a bad and incomplete tweet that created misleading confusion about the strait's reopening." - Fars News: Demanded clarity. "At minimum, explain why you're not explaining. The public is confused." 6. By Noon ET, Iran Releases Clarifications Fars News cites an unnamed source from Iran's Supreme National Security Council: The strait's reopening has three specific conditions: - Only merchant ships (no military vessels) - Ships and cargo can't be connected to hostile countries - Ships must use Iranian-designated shipping lanes and coordinate with Iranian authorities - If the U.S. keeps its naval blockade, Iran will close the strait again Tasnim News follows up with IRGC Navy requirements: - Only civilian ships - No military vessels - Permission from IRGC's Navy required - Transit begins after Lebanon's ceasefire agreement takes effect Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson clarifies: - Iran is committed to implementing the Lebanon ceasefire based on the April 9 agreement - The strait "opening" just means executing that April 9 commitment - Commercial ships can transit if coordinated with Iran - Ships use Iranian-designated routes with Iranian coordination 7. Iran's Messages Vanish Without a Trace Here's the problem: Iran's media accounts have only tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of followers. Not enough to move markets. Many posts are in Persian, reaching mostly Iranians. Fortunately X has the translation feature, otherwise they don't spread at all. Tasnim's News' major announcement got 6,000 views and a dozen retweets. Stone cold silence. Western media, financial professionals, Wall Street - they mostly don't know these Iranian outlets exist. Many assume they're fake accounts spreading disinformation. Quant algorithms certainly can't capture posts with only thousands of views. Result: Iran's clarifications changed nothing. Markets kept climbing. In the financial perception war, if America's power is 100, Iran's is 1. 8. Trump Wins the Market Manipulation Game Again Stocks keep soaring: - Dow Jones: +1.79% (closing records for three straight days) - S&P 500: +1.20%, hitting all-time closing high - Nasdaq: +1.52%, up for 13 straight trading days (longest streak since 1992), hitting intraday and closing records This shows Wall Street has complete pricing power over global markets. Oil prices: - WTI closes at $83.85/barrel (down 11.4% for the day) - Brent closes at $90.38/barrel (down ~9.1%) Some profit-taking happens. Iran releases counter-messages, so traders sense uncertainty. But these small pullbacks don't reverse the day's pice fall. Conclusion: Trump successfully manipulated markets again by releasing positive messages during trading. Insider traders and quant funds made fortunes. Count how many times this script has played out in the past month. TIt's not because the market doesn't learn — it's because this IS the market. 9. Iran's Parliament Speaker Responds — But After the Close At 6:14 p.m. ET (markets already closed), Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf posts: > 1. The U.S. president threw out seven accusations in one hour. All fake. > 2. With lies, they can't win wars or gain advantages at the negotiating table. > 3. If U.S. blockade continues, the Strait of Hormuz won't stay open. > 4. Want through the strait? Use "designated lanes" and get "Iranian authorization." > 5. Whether the strait is open or closed depends on ground realities, not social media posts. > 6. Media and propaganda are part of warfare, but Iranians reject this. Ghalibaf's message aligns perfectly with what Tasnim, Fars, and Mehr said earlier. It contradicts Trump entirely (same playbook, same stories, again and again and again). Problem: He posted after the close. No market impact. America won the "financial war" today. 10. Critical Fact: Iran Has No Global Voice — It Will Lose the Cognitive War, at least on the capital market in short term. - Ghalibaf: 590,000 followers on X - Araghchi: 810,000 followers on X These are Iran's loudest official voices. Earlier, Ari Larijani was another major voice. But Israel assassinated him, eliminating another Iranian platform. Compare that to Bill Ackman, one Wall Street's Zionist financial tycoon: 2.1m followers. That's the quantified difference in influence and voice between Iran and America's Jewish "financial-media complex". Part 2: Q&A Analysis 1. What Does "Open" the Strait Actually Mean? One Opening, Two Interpretations Iran's definition of "open": Use designated shipping lanes + pay fees. "Managed opening." America's/Market's definition of "open": Unconditional, free, complete freedom to transit. These are not the same thing. Everyone's talking past each other. Since the war started, the strait has rarely been fully closed. Mostly it operates under Iranian management. Iran emphasizes that it's "open" because that protects its relationship with partner nations and the international community. Iran's stated and real goal: Control the strait. To Iran, that's "open." (Just like the Suez Canal and Panama Canal are "open.") 2. What's the Connection Between "Opening" and the U.S.-Israel-Iran Ceasefire? The strait opening was part of the ceasefire conditions announced April 8. It was delayed because Israel kept attacking Lebanon. Under Pakistani mediation, Iran agreed to open the strait to show commitment to peace - even though talks with the U.S. went nowhere because Israel was still fighting Lebanon. So it was: ceasefire + talks + closed strait. Now it's: ceasefire + talks + open strait (with Iran's management terms). This opening only lasts until April 22. 3. Why Did Iran Suddenly "Open" the Strait? Because the U.S. Brokered an Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire April 16: Trump says he had "very good" talks with Lebanon's president and Israel's PM. A 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire starts. April 17: Trump posts, "Israel will no longer bomb Lebanon. The U.S. has forbidden them to do so." (First time ever a U.S. president publicly ordered Israel to stop attacking another country.) Iran kindly responds by "opening" the strait, as part of the existing ceasefie agreement. It is NOT something new. 4. Why Is the U.S. Blockading Iran? To Counter Iran's "Managed Opening" April 12: Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, banning Iran-related ships. This violates the ceasefire agreement. Since both sides define "open" differently, the blockade is America's response to Iran's "managed opening" interpretation. Iran: The blockade violates the ceasefire. If it continues, we close the strait. 5. How Does Iran Manage the Strait During "Opening"? - No limit on ship numbers (Iran previously capped it at c. 15/day (15 is a theoretical number anyway) - **Only "merchant vessels"** — the IRGC gets to decide what counts - Must use Iran's designated shipping lanes and coordinate with Iranian forces (has has been true for the past several weeks) - "Open" doesn't mean "free"** — ships pay Iran tolls (like Suez and Panama Canals) - Non-compliant ships don't pass (many turned back yesterday) 6. How Many Ships Can Actually Transit? Shipping insurance hasn't returned. Without affordable insurance, there are no contracts, no operating capital, no port access, no crew agreement. "The strait is a financial blockade, not a military one. Fees are another barrier. Small cargo or empty ships — will the economics work? The "opening" lasts only until April 22 and can close anytime if the U.S. blockade continues or the ceasefire ends. Result: "Opening" ≠ shipping recovery. Real shipping recovery needs clear management rules and restored insurance. Monitor daily transit numbers for the actual impact. 7.. Why Did Foreign Minister Araghchi Say What He Said? Read his post again: "In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran." He covered the key points: Lebanon ceasefire, "for the duration," merchant ships, "open," designated lanes. Consistent with Iranian policies. But he speaks in diplomatic language. He cares about Iran's international image and relationships. He doesn't lay out rules as explicitly as IRGC would. Wall Street's rule: Everything can be good news. Take the most optimistic interpretation. Araghchi's vague language? Perfect. Call it a complete opening. He posted before market open — unusual timing that set the day's narrative. Trump saw an opportunity, then escalated it massively. By the time Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf clarified, it was two hours after close. No market impact. The timing is suspicious: Araghchi speaks before open. Trump speaks during. Ghalibaf speaks after close. Trump dominates the market narrative. Strange and convenient. 8. Why Is Trump Manipulating Markets? What's His Real Thinking? **Trump has reduced the whole U.S.-Iran economic and information war to one metric: the stock index.** If stocks rise, the economy is great. Retail gas prices ("fake news"), inflation ("fake inflation") — irrelevant. *His strategy has worked for weeks. Markets take everything he says at face value. Good news gets amplified. Fake news becomes real news. Nasdaq up 13 straight days. S&P 500 at all-time highs. This success is making him bolder, more reckless. Zero-cost manipulation: He releases positive messages during trading hours. If it blows up later, he just says talks collapsed or Iran reneged. Markets don't penalize him. They take everything literally, turn it into investment decisions instantly. He leverages Iran's "opening" message to amplify his own statements. With Araghchi's apparent backing, his credibility seems higher. Markets soar. Oil crashes. Impact is unprecedented. He mixes negotiation with market manipulation. Through Pakistani intermediaries, the U.S. and Iran might be exchanging concessions. Trump's strategy: release every favorable detail immediately. His April 17 posts mixed his wish list, his understanding of talks, pressure on Iran, exchanged conditions, his negotiation tactics themselves - all while "accidentally" manipulating markets upward and oil downward. Trump's historically unprecedented move: No world leader has ever disclosed diplomatic progress by rapid-fire social media posts during market trading hours - with zero accountability for accuracy. Pure market manipulation, followed by insider trading and quant algorithms executing microsecond decisions. The spectacle: Trump releases false information to manipulate markets. Wall Street's cheers. Economic war becomes financial war becomes perception war over asset pricing and narrative power.*Whoever controls narrative and pricing controls markets. Iran controls the physical strait and the long-term economic fundamentals. But Trump, his allies, and Wall Street won thee cognitive warfare at least in short-term. financial battle.** Yet someday, markets will have to have its reality check. So eventually, time is on Iran's side."

3) Have a ceasefire that maintains American-Israeli dominance. Failed. Iran is almost dictating terms of the deal. 4) Israel will continue building the Greater Israel contours. Failed. Iran actually put a leash on Israel (in Lebanon), a world-first. (though for how long, remains to be seen) 5) Economically and financially bankrupt Iran and break its backbone. Failed. US is unfreezing Irani assets, and most sanctions might end some day soon. 6) Destroy Iran's image as the pariah Mullah regime, a degraded State. Failed. Iran has risen in just 40 days to reclaim its place on the global high-stakes table. 7) Prove American-Israeli military superiority and silence all enemies everywhere. Failed. Asymmetric warfare is now the flavour of the decade (century?) and warfare has changed. 8) Silence and subdue the Chinese and Russians by a 'decisive victory' over Iran. Failed. The reverse has happened.  
This episode is for the history books.  10:49AM 18 April 2026

17 April 2026

Nawaf Salam نواف سلام on X: "أرحّب بإعلان وقف إطلاق النار الذي أعلنه الرئيس ترامب، وهو مطلب لبناني محوري سعينا إليه منذ اليوم الأول للحرب، وكان هدفنا الأول في لقاء واشنطن يوم الثلاثاء. وإذ أهنّئ جميع اللبنانيين بهذا الإنجاز، أترحّم على الشهداء الذين سقطوا، وأؤكّد تضامني مع عائلاتهم، ومع الجرحى، ومع المواطنين" / X I welcome the announcement of the ceasefire declared by President Trump, which is a central Lebanese demand we have pursued since the first day of the war, and was our primary goal in the Washington meeting on Tuesday. As I congratulate all Lebanese on this achievement, I pray for the martyrs who fell, and affirm my solidarity with their families, with the wounded, and with the citizens who were forced to flee their cities and villages, and I hold full hope that they will be able to return to them as soon as possible. 
I also cannot but thank all the regional and international efforts exerted to reach this outcome, especially those by the United States of America, France, European Union countries, and all Arab brothers, led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Arab Republic of Egypt, in addition to the State of Qatar and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.1:50AM 17 April 2026

Kuwait Mission to the UN 🇰🇼 on X: "القى سعادة السفير طارق البناي، المندوب الدائم لدولة الكويت لدى الأمم المتحدة، بياناً نيابةً عن مملكة البحرين، ودولة الإمارات العربية المتحدة، والمملكة العربية السعودية، ودولة قطر، والمملكة الأردنية الهاشمية، ودولة الكويت، خلال جلسة الجمعية العامة للأمم المتحدة المنعقدة تنفيذاً https://t.co/QOJW2Ul8Fx" / X  Representative of the State of Kuwait to the United Nations, delivered a statement on behalf of the Kingdom of Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the State of Qatar, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, and the State of Kuwait, during the United Nations General Assembly session convened in implementation of the veto initiative following the use of the veto by both Russia and China against the draft resolution concerning the securing of maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz by the Security Council on April 7, 2026.
 
He affirmed the rejection of threats targeting freedom of navigation, warning of their repercussions on energy security and global supply chains, and emphasizing the necessity of respecting international law and ensuring the security of maritime passages, while announcing the continuation of collective action through the submission of a new draft resolution that enhances maritime security and preserves international peace and security.  2:21 AM 17 April 2026
The deeper impact lies in what follows. If more nations begin to move in the same direction, the global system itself starts to change. This is not just about two countries; it is about whether the world continues under one financial center or begins to split into multiple power structures. 5:04AM 17 April 2026
BREAKING NEWS. Diplomatic earthquake in New York! 🔥
The UN Security Council has just erupted. In a vote no one saw coming with such raw force, France has turned its back on the United States and blocked the resolution seeking to legitimize the use of force (Chapter VII) to “unblock” the Strait of Hormuz. It wasn’t just the expected veto from Russia and China. The real stab in the back came from Paris. Emmanuel Macron has said “enough!”: France will no longer be the silent sidekick in another U.S. military adventure in the Middle East. It voted against, didn’t abstain. A brutal gesture of sovereignty that echoes like a cannon shot in the transatlantic architecture. As the world holds its breath, the message is clear: Europe (at least the Gaullist France that still breathes) refuses to set fire to the global energy market for an operation many call “legalized piracy” under the Pentagon’s flag. Russia and China, with Vitaly Nebenzya at the helm, were unrelenting: that resolution was a blank check for war. They’ve defended, on paper, Iranian sovereignty and warned that any escalation would be irreversible in a region already hanging by a thread. Donald Trump’s reaction was swift: he’s threatened “consequences” for France. That public fury confirms what many suspected: the transatlantic rift is no longer a crack—it’s an abyss. NATO’s “bloc discipline” is in the ICU. Allies no longer obey out of loyalty; they calculate based on their own interests. What happened today is the death certificate of the old order where Washington called the shots and the rest clapped. If the United States can’t even convince its oldest ally to protect the world’s vital oil artery on its terms, then its global leadership is no longer hegemonic: it’s fragmented. Without a UN resolution, the Strait of Hormuz remains under Iran’s de facto control. Washington is left without international legal cover for a large-scale intervention and forced back to the negotiating table it was trying to flee.  
This isn’t just a diplomatic setback. It’s a magnitude 10 quake in world geopolitics. Multipolarity is no longer a theory: today it voted in the Security Council.  6:00AM 17 April 2026 

Anita Anand on X: "Le Canada accueille favorablement le cessez-le-feu de 10 jours entre Israël et le Liban. Il s’agit d’une étape importante vers la désescalade, et toutes les parties doivent pleinement respecter et mettre en œuvre ce cessez-le-feu afin d’éviter d’autres pertes de vie. Nous" / X  Canada welcomes the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. This is an important step toward de-escalation, and all parties must fully respect and implement this ceasefire to avoid further loss of life. We reiterate that Hezbollah must be disarmed in accordance with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. Canada reaffirms its firm support for Lebanon's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and state institutions. We stand in solidarity with civilians who continue to suffer the consequences of a conflict they did not choose. Canada will continue to advocate for the protection of civilians and civilian infrastructure, as well as for lasting regional stability. 7:08AM 17 April 2026

 Shashi Tharoor on X: "My latest #TharoorThink column in the @IndianExpress yesterday argues that while I have supported India’s strategic restraint on the #IranWar so far, it’s time to move beyond the tactical manoeuvring of survival, toward the strategic clarity of diplomatic leadership. For the sake https://t.co/B9pWxj0JoX" / X sake of our own growth, for the stability of our region, and for the moral conscience of the world, India must lead the way back from the brink and work to rebuilding th architecture of regional security and world order.   2:51PM 17 April 2026 
 Dr. Brahma Chellaney on X: "The “Islamic Bomb” Comes Full Circle: To bail himself out of his self-made Iran war debacle, President Trump has turned Pakistan into his backchannel to Tehran — effectively asking one nuclear-armed Islamic republic to dissuade another from pursuing the very nuclear path it was" / X  path it was once permitted to take.
In other words, Pakistan is being asked to warn Iran against becoming another Pakistan.  
The term “Islamic bomb,” popularized by Pakistan’s then–prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and later amplified by Western media, now carries an irony Washington can scarcely ignore.  5:48PM 17 April 2026

Today, the US and Israel have launched strikes on Iran. The Strait of Hormuz — carrying 20% of the world's oil — has been effectively blockaded. The mission looks decisive. History says otherwise. 🔸The parallels are almost absurd: 🟠 Both crises were triggered by oil sovereignty, not military threat 🟠 Both involved a Western power acting unilaterally over a vital maritime chokepoint 🟠 Both were tactical successes and strategic catastrophes 🟠 Both exposed an empire's decline rather than its strength 🔸The Geopolitical Isolation In 1956, Britain and France were abandoned by their closest ally — the United States. Today, the US is the one isolated. (Goa got freedom on 17-19 December 1961) Russia & China vetoed a UN resolution to reopen Hormuz. Iran has now authorized Russian, Chinese, and Indian vessels to use the strait. The alignment between Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow is no longer a theory — it's a fact. Britain had Suez. America has Hormuz.
History gave both the same ending. Suez killed Pax Britannica. 
Is Hormuz killing Pax Americana? 6:46PM 17 April 2026

The pattern never changes: create a central bank, grant it money creation powers, then fund endless military adventures while citizens watch their purchasing power evaporate. Bonaparte's wars consumed roughly 2.5 billion francs between 1803-1815. Direct taxation would have sparked revolution (again). So the Banque de France simply created money, bought government bonds, and voilà—invisible taxation through inflation. French citizens paid for Austerlitz, Jena, and Waterloo through debased currency, not knowing they funded each cannonball and cavalry charge through their shrinking wages and savings. The genius of central banking lies in this deception. You can't see inflation the way you see income taxes. When bread costs more, people blame bakers, not bankers. When wages stagnate, they blame employers, not money printers. Napoleon's wars would have ended quickly if he had to knock on doors asking French families to fund another campaign against Austria. Every central bank since has followed Napoleon's playbook. The Federal Reserve financing Wilson's war, Nixon's Vietnam spending spree, Bush's Iraq adventure.  
The technology changes, but the scam remains identical: steal purchasing power gradually, fund government expansion continuously, and convince the public that monetary policy serves their interests rather than the state's appetite for power. 8:31PM 17 April 2026

 North Korea TV on X: "Kim Jong Un The U.S. wants Greenland and the entire world’s oil China wants Taiwan Russia wants Ukraine’s territory But I don’t want a single piece of any nation’s land I’m minding my own business in my own country Still, the world calls me a dictator. https://t.co/coQd1TAuL5" / X 11:15PM 17 April 2026

16 April 2026

  GBX on X: "President of Brazil: ​“Iran has been attacked. I am furious! Why does everyone with power think they own the world?! We are no longer colonies; we have our independence. Come, let us shout it out!” https://t.co/TRmS2AFEJ6" / X 3:02AM 16 April 2026 

Mir Mohammad Alikhan on X: "I candidly asked an Irani official in Iran today: If they have abandoned Lebanon. This was his reply and I am ashamed that I even asked that stupid question. Please read. Did Iran abandon Lebanon? 1. They prevented Iran from building power plants so Lebanon could reach https://t.co/GrhXv3lRDt" / X energy self-sufficiency, then said Iran abandoned you.

2. They blocked Iran from building dams, first in Christian areas, and behind the scenes demanded money so they could build them themselves, only to steal it as they stole much of the aid, then said Iran abandoned you. 3. They prevented Iranian engineers and doctors from reaching Lebanon for reconstruction, then said Iran abandoned you. 4. They froze Iranian bank accounts in Lebanon under the pretext of U.S. sanctions and blocked billions of dollars from reaching those affected and whose homes were destroyed, then said Iran abandoned you.
5. They blocked Iranian flights from reaching Lebanon, and before that prevented Iranian planes from refueling at Beirut airport, then said Iran abandoned you. 6. They cut the land route linking Iran to Lebanon (for example, the attack in Kahale), then said Iran abandoned you. 7. They recalled the Lebanese ambassador from Iran, then said Iran abandoned you. 8. They expelled the Iranian ambassador from Lebanon, then said Iran abandoned you. 9. They blocked Iranian humanitarian and military aid, amounting to hundreds of tons, from reaching Lebanon, then said Iran abandoned you. 10. They contacted Pakistan to prevent Iran from gaining the credit for securing a ceasefire in Lebanon, and instead kept the fire and killing going against the Lebanese people, then said Iran abandoned you. 11. They did everything they could, and some things I cannot even mention here, all so they could later say Iran abandoned you. No and a thousand times no: Iran did not and will not abandon المقاومة in Lebanon. You are the ones who abandoned your humanity, your dignity, and your people, and rushed into American arms to beg for what Iran was willing to give to all of Lebanon, but you rejected it out of spite, as usual. These facts must be known by everyone… 3:36AM 16 April 2026

THE CORE THESIS: IRAN DRAWS AN UNMISTAKABLE LINE ➡️ Iran officially states the US now faces two clear options with no wiggle room. ➡️ Remove the Hormuz blockade or watch the Gulf, Sea of Oman, and Red Sea get completely sealed. ➡️ This marks a dramatic shift from Iran’s usual nuanced and softer style of communication. THE STRATEGIC MASTERCLASS ➡️ The ultimatum was issued openly and publicly, fully aware of how sensitive Trump is to humiliation. ➡️ Iran raised the stakes massively while still operating inside the ceasefire and negotiations framework. ➡️ They countered the US move outside the rules without abandoning diplomacy altogether. THE TIMING AND CONTEXT ➡️ This comes right after Americans spread a smug narrative that the war was already mostly over. ➡️ It forces the US into a public moment of truth: fold and hand Iran the win, or risk massive escalation. ➡️ Closing those waterways would destroy the facade of short-war success and economic normalcy. THE POWER BEHIND THE SILENCE ➡️ The 48-hour quiet period allowed Iran to secure full consensus across its decentralized leadership. ➡️ Such decisions take longer but deliver immense unity and a shared sense of fate. ➡️ Iran has never bluffed once in this conflict. THE BOTTOM LINE Iran just delivered one of the most daring and momentous moves in this war, forcing Trump and his team into an incredibly tough public decision. The outlines of this conflict are now crystal clear once again. The whole world is watching. 
This is the sound of power shifting fast in the Persian Gulf. 8:01AM 16 April 2026

I have struggled with these Joint Resolutions of Disapproval as much as any vote since I joined Congress. I represent a state with a large Arab and Muslim population and a large Jewish population. And over these last two-plus years, few issues have been as raw, painful, and personal as this one. Throughout that time, I have worked hard to call balls and strikes based on my experience and the facts on the ground, even when some are reluctant to consider new information. My entire life, I have been -- and continue to be -- a strong supporter of a Jewish and democratic State of Israel. The people of Israel, like all people throughout the region, deserve long-term security and peace. But being pro-Israel today is not about simply supporting the political or military agenda of Prime Minister Netanyahu, just like being pro-American should not be equated with loyalty to President Trump. This is a complex truth that many of us who support Israel hold, and it applies to my own patriotism and government as well. I can support the security of a country without supporting the specific policies of any one political party or leader. And if Israelis can take part in rigorous debate and protests of their own government’s policies, Americans supportive of Israel can do the same thing. I have no love lost for the Iranian regime or their proxy groups like Hezbollah. I know firsthand from three tours in Iraq alongside our military how Iran is responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Americans and thousands more civilians in the Middle East. But President Trump committed the U.S. to a war of choice against Iran, alongside Israel, with no evidence of an imminent threat, no clear objectives, and without Congressional approval. Seven weeks in, he has yet to provide a strategy for this war or a clear path to get out of it. So just as I am against more U.S.-funded weapons to Israel today, I am also deeply skeptical of more U.S. funding for the Iran war, which reportedly could be anywhere between $50 to $200 billion, on top of $1 trillion provided to the Pentagon last year.  
Every American should be invested in the U.S. ending this war with the least possible loss of blood and treasure. It is my hope that we can get a comprehensive and durable ceasefire as soon as possible. 9:07AM 16 April 2026

 IRAN IRGCC on X: "BREAKING: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Senior Iranian General Mohsen Rezaee has rejected the continuation of the ceasefire, stating that military operations will persist until a formal agreement is reached. He warned that Iranian forces would target and sink hostile vessels without allowing passage. https://t.co/Ou7osiMevU" / X  passage. Rezaee also sharply criticized former U.S. President Donald Trump, describing him as unpredictable and alleging undue influence from Israeli leadership. Additionally, he claimed that Zionist networks exert significant control over key sectors of the U.S. economy, including finance, artificial intelligence, and energy. 10:55AM 16 April 2026

Even if Scott Bessent is wrong in his figures – the CCG does not cover 8% of #China's energy needs, but rather between 5 and 6% –, the secondary sanctions he speaks of constitute the real objective of this attempt to blockade the Strait of #Ormuz. As I explained in my last two interviews with French media, this blockade aims to disrupt the oil supply to the emerging economies of the Global South, and especially to China. By threatening two Chinese banks with sanctions if they engage in oil transactions with Iran, a message is being sent to all of China's oil suppliers to reconsider their position and choose sides. Today, it is #Iran's sales to China that are being sanctioned: decades of sanctions, embargoes, and military coercion have failed to deter Iran, so now it is the Chinese banks that are being targeted. Tomorrow, it will be any small oil-producing country that will be ordered to stop selling oil to China, under penalty of financial and military coercion. This will make China more dependent on Russia for its energy supply (only 20% for now). Once China depends on #Russia for more than 50% of its supply, it will suffice for the United States to initiate a thaw with Russia against China, as they did in 1972 with China against Russia, to put China under strong energy pressure. Trump's official visit to China is now scheduled for May 14 and 15, where the trade war and technological competition top the agenda. But these two issues are more important for the United States than for China. This issue of an unhindered oil supply could prove more crucial for China in the long term, and should also feature prominently in the discussion agenda. This is what the Anglo-American hegemon does every time it enters a negotiation from a position of weakness: it creates a crisis from whole cloth that will feature prominently on the adversary's agenda, in order to balance the negotiations. 
A cunning tactic, but China has already seen this kind of ploy before. 3:51PM 16 April 2026

Trump has previously used diplomatic engagement as strategic cover for military action, and he may now be playing the same double game, even as his “favorite field marshal” from Pakistan delivers Washington’s messages in Tehran. Under Trump, negotiations have increasingly become camouflage for employing force. In June 2025, U.S. nuclear talks with Iran in Oman provided cover for Israel’s devastating aerial assaults on Iran, catching Tehran completely off guard. And on February 28, 2026, just as renewed American negotiations with Tehran were progressing toward a deal, with Oman again serving as the key mediator, the U.S. and Israel launched a joint war on Iran. This pattern of bad-faith diplomacy has not gone unnoticed abroad, reinforcing the perception that, for Washington, negotiations are not pathways to resolving disputes but preludes to coercion — or worse, attack. 
“Talking Peace, Waging War” is no longer a contradiction; it is Trump’s method. 4:37PM 16 April 2026

 China pulse 🇨🇳 on X: "Chinese Foreign Ministry: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated in a phone call with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqchi a short while ago: We reaffirm our continued support for Iran in safeguarding its national dignity. The sovereignty, security, rights, and legitimate https://t.co/uNo9mEVB4b" / X  legitimate interests of your country, as a littoral state of the Strait of Hormuz, must be respected and protected. At the same time, the freedom and security of international maritime navigation through the Strait must also be guaranteed. This is a shared call of the international community.   5:09PM 16 April 2026

Yet one is relentlessly sanctioned, threatened and even denied civilian nuclear rights under international safeguards. The other has been indulged, armed and repeatedly excused, even as it built nuclear weapons while fostering terrorist proxies.10:46PM 16 April 2026


15 April 2026

 "Trump Panics as World Turns Against His Iran Blockade!" | Bill Clinton

TRUMP CONCEDES DEFEAT TO IRAN? US President Makes Stunning ‘Admission’ Before Fresh Talks

12th Chinese Ambassador to the USA Xie Feng 谢锋 on X: "When meeting with Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, the UAE on Apr. 14, President Xi Jinping made four propositions on safeguarding and promoting peace and stability in the Middle East: 1️⃣ Stay committed to the principle of peaceful co-existence. The Gulf states in the Middle East are https://t.co/n1TByS9Neg" / X in the Middle East are close neighbors that cannot move away. It’s important to support the Gulf states in improving their ties, work to build a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security architecture of the Middle East and the Gulf region, and consolidate the foundation for peaceful co-existence.  

2️⃣ Stay committed to the principle of national sovereignty. Sovereignty serves as a foundation for all countries, especially developing countries, to survive and thrive, and it must not be violated. The sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of the Gulf states should be earnestly respected, and the safety of their personnel, facilities and institutions vigorously safeguarded. 12:22AM 15 April 2026 

 Chinese Mission to UN on X: "2026年4月14日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅在北京同来华访问的俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫会谈。 https://t.co/G31PwD4eRy" / X On April 14, 2026, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, held talks in Beijing with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who was visiting China. 1:47AM 15 April 2026 Read in Geopolitics in detail.

Makkawi Elmalik | مكّاوي الملك on X: "🟥 انفجار هرمز… حين يتحول الحصار إلى بداية سقوط السيطرة⏳ ما يحدث الآن ليس تصعيدا عابرا… بل لحظة تحوّل تكشف حقيقة أخطر: ❗النظام الذي كان يُدير العالم… بدأ يفقد القدرة على التحكم فيه 🟥 أولاً: الحصار دخل حيّز التنفيذ… لكن المعادلة خرجت من يد واشنطن أمريكا فرضت حصاراً بحرياً https://t.co/xATcizLnq9" / X 🟥 Hormuz Explosion… When the Siege Turns into the Beginning of Losing Control ⏳

What is happening now is not a passing escalation… but a moment of transformation that reveals a more dangerous truth: ❗The system that was managing the world… has begun to lose its ability to control it 🟥 First: The siege has entered the realm of implementation… but the equation has slipped from Washington's hands America imposed a seemingly naval blockade on Iran… But in practice, it has opened three more dangerous fronts: 💥 Collision with energy flows 💥 Direct test with China 💥 Pressure on the global economy ❗Meaning the siege is no longer a tool of pressure… but has become a test of survival 🟥 Second: China broke the rule… before the confrontation even began Beijing's rejection of the blockade is not just a political stance… but a declaration: 💥 (Trade will not submit to the American decision) ❗And here is the real explosion: If China militarily escorts its tankers… Then we are facing a historic moment: Will America open fire?? Or will it retreat and lose its prestige?? Both options = strategic loss 🟥 Third: The blockade is legally fragile… and strategically more dangerous for Washington Even within America… reports and decision-making centers consider it: 💥 In violation of international law 💥 Fraught with direct collision with major powers ❗And here the truth unfolds: It is not a consensus of power… but division within the decision-making center itself 🟥 Fourth: The real scene… is not as it appears in the media Trump is trying to show (indifference) and display confidence… But behind the image: 💥 Iranian offers have arrived 💥 Negotiations have not actually been closed 💥 Economic pressure is escalating ❗Meaning we are facing: A narrative of strength in public… and a negotiation dilemma in private 🟥 Fifth: Hormuz is no longer just a passage… but a sovereign weapon What is happening now confirms: 💥 Whoever controls the passage… controls the global decision And therefore: • America wants to force it open • Iran wants it as a tool of sovereignty • China wants it as an independent lifeline ❗And here the conflict transforms from regional… to a struggle over (who rules the world) 🟥 Sixth: The most dangerous point in the scene (the moment of breaking the balance) We are now facing only three possibilities: 1/ America retreats → fall of prestige 2/ Military escalation → open international confrontation 3/ Continuation of pressure → deadly economic drain 💥 And there is no scenario of (clean victory) 🟥 The Brilliant Summary: ❗What began as a siege on Iran… has turned into a test of America's ability to impose its will on the world 💥 And if it fails… It won't just be a policy that falls… but the model of hegemony itself 🟥 The sentence that sums up the entire scene: 💥 The blockade was not imposed because America is strong… but it was imposed because the moment of losing control has begun… 

And what we see now… is not just the beginning of a war… but the beginning of the end of an entire system 2:55AM 15 April 2026

Cool_Ustaaz ☪ on X: "BREAKING: 🇨🇳 President of China, Xi Jinping: “A certain country, obsessed with maintaining its hegemony, has done everything possible to cripple emerging markets and developing nations. Whoever progresses rapidly becomes a target of containment; whoever catches up becomes a https://t.co/8k7HbtjJFV" / X becomes a threat. But all of this is futile. The world we live in today is a community with a shared future. People do not want a new Cold War; they want a world of lasting peace and universal security." 3:17AM 15 April 2026

Richard N. Haass on X: "The @WSJ reports Saudi Arabia pressing US to drop its Hormuz blockade. Here's an idea: a Saudi initiative calling for both the Strait of Hormuz & the Bab el-Mandeb to be open to all. Saudis could also propose a toll-sharing formula that would benefit all locals including iran." / X 6:55AM 15 April 2026

Chinese Embassy in US on X: "🕊️President Xi Jinping made four propositions on safeguarding and promoting peace and stability in the #MiddleEast. 1⃣Stay committed to the principle of peaceful co-existence. The Gulf states in the Middle East are close neighbors that cannot move away. It’s important to https://t.co/tSkMBvUcxB" / X important to support the Gulf states in improving their ties, work to build a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security architecture of the Middle East and the Gulf region, and consolidate the foundation for peaceful co-existence.

2⃣Stay committed to the principle of national sovereignty. Sovereignty serves as a foundation for all countries, especially developing countries, to survive and thrive, and it must not be violated. The sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of the Gulf states should be earnestly respected, and the safety of their personnel, facilities and institutions vigorously safeguarded. 3⃣Stay committed to the principle of international rule of law. It is important to firmly uphold the international system with the U.N. at its core, the international order based on international law, and basic norms governing international relations underpinned by the purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter.

4⃣Stay committed to a balanced approach to development and security. Security is a prerequisite for development, and development serves as a safeguard of security. All sides should work to create a sound environment for and bring positive energy to the development of the Gulf states. China stands ready to share with the Gulf countries the opportunities through Chinese modernization and work with them to nurture a fertile ground for regional development and security. 6:58AM 15 April 2026


Congressman Bill Foster on X: "Negotiations with Iran require technical experts—not real estate moguls and venture capitalists. JD Vance tried to broker a deal in a weekend, while the Iran Nuclear Deal took nearly two years. This administration has gotten us into another war with no end in sight—and our" / X  7:05AM 15 April 2026           Trump says Iran talks may resume this week, but opposes enrichment compromise - The Washington Post

Runas Dos Lunas on X: "🔴 En un gesto de firmeza histórica que resuena en medio del caos existencial del conflicto, la primera ministra italiana Giorgia Meloni ha alzado la voz desde la tribuna de la ONU con una claridad que corta el aire. “Acuso a Israel de haber cruzado la línea roja. Condeno sin https://t.co/FGkTaM3DTX" / X In a gesture of historic firmness that resonates amid the existential chaos of the conflict, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has raised her voice from the UN podium with a clarity that cuts through the air.

“I accuse Israel of having crossed the red line. I unequivocally condemn the massacre of Palestinian civilians and announce that Italy will support European sanctions against the Israeli State,” she declared with determination. This pronouncement marks a bold and necessary shift in the stance of a government that, until now, had maintained close ties with Tel Aviv. Meloni not only questions the proportionality of the military operations but openly denounces the violation of the most basic humanitarian norms—that barbarity that turns entire neighborhoods into graves and childhood dreams into rubble. She speaks of a “strage,” an unacceptable slaughter, that can no longer be ignored under the cloak of “self-defense” when the price is paid with the blood of the innocent. Italy’s decision to back restrictive measures at the European level, along with the suspension of the automatic renewal of the defense cooperation agreement, reveals a stance that prioritizes human dignity above comfortable strategic alliances. It is an act of ethical coherence in a world where complicit silence has become all too frequent. Women with spines of steel, yes. Because it takes a backbone forged in the hermeneutics of others’ pain, in the phenomenology of suffering that can no longer be normalized, to look power straight in the face and say: “Enough.” In these times of imperial darkness, where international law bends like paper before brute force, gestures like this one from Meloni remind us that true sovereignty does not lie in obedience to hegemonic blocs, but in the uncompromising defense of life, of justice, and of that profound humanism that makes us, even amid the horror, continue to believe in the possibility of a less cruel world. May this voice inspire more leaders to break the silence

whether from the left or the right and may the call for peace in Palestine not fade. Because every civilian murdered is an interrupted symphony, and all of humanity deserves for us to sing it whole once more. 10:53AM 15 April 2026 https://x.com/i/status/2044217518642868411


Elizabeth Sheppard Sellam on X: "Le mouvement est discret, mais profondément structurant. Selon Reuters, plusieurs alliés des États-Unis, ébranlés par l’imprévisibilité de Trump, se tournent désormais vers le Japon, qui s’apprête à ouvrir largement ses exportations d’armement — un changement majeur, le plus" / X The movement is discreet, but profoundly structuring. According to Reuters, several U.S. allies, shaken by Trump's unpredictability, are now turning to Japan, which is preparing to widely open its arms exports—a major shift, the most significant since World War II. This pivot responds to very concrete constraints. U.S. stockpiles are under pressure, particularly with Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East, while industrial capacities struggle to keep up. Delivery times are lengthening, volumes are falling short, and the perceived reliability of Washington is being questioned.

In this context, Japan emerges as a credible alternative. Tokyo plans to export frigates, missile defense systems, and advanced technologies, while developing industrial cooperations in key areas like drones or electronic warfare. Countries like Poland or the Philippines are already at the forefront. On the Japanese side, the goal is clear: rebuild a robust defense industrial base, with a rising budget and groups like Mitsubishi Electric or Toshiba expanding. It is both about meeting international demand and strengthening its own strategic posture.
Between the lines, the message is crystal clear. Allies are no longer just seeking to supplement the U.S. offer. They are anticipating a world where the U.S. security guarantee is less automatic—and where diversification becomes a strategic necessity. 5:45PM 15 April 2026 Rattled by Trump, US allies eye Japan's biggest arms opening since WW2 | Reuters

Europe has had enough and is about to create a European NATO. It's been obvious in the recent year, and it's been the talk in Brussels. This is a painful step for Europe, and it reduces the USA from superpower to great power. Now the USA is starting to resemble China, which has tons of resources and military power—but no friends. 
It's wild how Trump has thrown the USA's power off course, and even wilder that Congress isn't stopping him. 5:49PM 15 April 2026 Exclusive | Europe Is Accelerating a NATO Fallback Plan in Case Trump Pulls Out - WSJ

Aimen Dean on X: "I genuinely don’t know whether to laugh or lose my mind anymore at this European hypocritical double standards. When it comes to Vladimir Putin, suddenly it’s Churchillian resolve. No compromise. No dialogue. Arm Ukraine to the teeth, sanction everything that moves, wreck your" / X wreck your own energy security if necessary - because tyranny must be confronted.

Fine. I actually respect the consistency of that … in isolation. But then you turn around and lecture us - us - the Gulf monarchies, Jordan and Israel, about showing restraint with Tehran? About dialogue? About coexistence? Are you serious? For forty years - forty bloody years - this regime has been waging a shadow war across the region. Militias, proxies, sleeper cells, terror networks, destabilizing entire countries - Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen - and threatening the Gulf monarchies, Jordan, and Israel nonstop. This isn’t theoretical. This isn’t abstract. This is a lived reality. And yet here come Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer, and the rest of the European choir, gently advising us to calm down, de-escalate, and - what was it again? - “Give diplomacy a chance.” Diplomacy with who, exactly? With a system that has built its entire regional strategy on plausible deniability and proxy terror violence? You were willing to absorb inflation, energy shocks, and political backlash at home to confront Moscow. You made that choice. You said: This is the price of standing up to a tyrant. So don’t come here and tell us - after decades of being on the receiving end - that we should just sit down, smile politely, and “coexist.” Either you believe in confronting tyranny everywhere .. or you don’t. Macron, Starmer, the rest of EU leaders and top bureaucrats should just STFU and spare us the self-righteous sanctimonious lectures! 7:22PM 15 April 2026

THE SECURITY COUNCIL WARNING ➡️ Washington and Tel Aviv could use the ongoing peace negotiations to prepare a ground operation against Iran. ➡️ The Pentagon continues to rapidly build up its military grouping in the region. THE STRATEGIC BUILDUP ➡️ Units from the elite 82nd Airborne Division are being transferred to the Middle East. ➡️ An amphibious assault group led by the USS Boxer carrying 2,500 Marines is heading straight to the conflict zone. ➡️ The carrier strike group centered on the nuclear-powered USS George Bush is also en route. THE SUSPICIOUS TIMING ➡️ These forces are expected to arrive in the Arabian Sea exactly as the two-week ceasefire expires. ➡️ Coalition forces are actively replenishing strike weapons and anti-missile systems. ➡️ Significant intelligence activity has already surged in the area. IRAN’S UNEXPECTED RESILIENCE ➡️ Tehran still possesses substantial quantities of weapons. ➡️ Various social and political groups have united firmly around the central authorities. ➡️ Radical opposition forces have gone deep underground while the system of state and military management remains stable. THE ESCALATION RISK ➡️ Combat actions could resume with far greater intensity if no agreement is reached after two weeks. ➡️ The second round of US-Iran talks is expected by the end of this week following the first round in Islamabad. THE BOTTOM LINE Russia is signaling that these negotiations may be nothing more than a calculated smokescreen for military escalation and a potential ground invasion.
The ceasefire clock is ticking while the Marines and carriers steam toward the Arabian Sea.11:39PM 15 April 2026

14 April 2026

I laugh when I read the letter of Antonio Gutrres that "after weeks of destruction and distress, it is clear that there is no military solution to the current conflict in the Middle East. I call for the resumption of talks for an agreement to be reached.  The ceasefire must absolutely be preserved. All violations must cease. All parties to the conflict must respect the freedom of navigation, including in the Strait of Hormuz, in line with international law." 12:32AM 14 April 2026

  Iran Press on X: "Trump's mismanagement of the war with Iran will go down in history as one of the worst examples of warfare ever. When your adversaries are like Netanyahu and Trump…who needs allies? https://t.co/sSQWcCJUqP" / X   1:07AM 14 April 2026

 سامح عسكر on X: "وزير الدفاع الصيني الأدميرال دونغ جون: ( نراقب الوضع في الشرق الأوسط. سفننا تدخل وتخرج من مياه مضيق هرمز. - لدينا اتفاقيات تجارية وطاقة مع إيران، وسنحترمها ونلتزم بها، ونتوقع من الآخرين عدم التدخل في شؤوننا. - إيران تسيطر على مضيق هرمز وهو مفتوح لنا.) التصريح هو تهديد صيني https://t.co/GprOeg6eZT" / X Chinese Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun: (We are monitoring the situation in the Middle East. Our ships enter and exit the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. - We have trade and energy agreements with Iran, and we will respect and abide by them, and we expect others not to interfere in our affairs. - Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and it is open to us.) The statement is a veiled Chinese threat to the United States that cutting off Iranian oil to China is a war on China. It is also a Chinese admission that Iran controls the Strait, not as the United States claims that it is the one blockading and controlling it.1:43AM 14 April 2026

Sina Toossi on X: "Is there room for a “win-win” deal in US–Iran negotiations, or are we now firmly in zero-sum territory? The dominant Iranian view appears to be: don’t trade “security” for unassured economic relief. “Control” of Hormuz, nuclear threshold, missiles, and regional "strategic depth"" / X "strategic depth" are viewed as key means of security and deterrence, not bargaining chips. Sanctions relief is reversible. Give up leverage, and you invite more pressure or war.

In that context, Iran’s aim at this juncture does not appear to be offering major concessions on these fronts, but securing strategic recognition as a legitimate security provider in a new regional order. Whether the US under Trump is willing to accept that is unclear. Israel certainly will not. But for other external great powers like China and Russia, the calculus is different. Compared to the U.S., their approach to the region is far more pragmatic and interest-driven. Iran offers something Israel and the U.S.-underwritten regional order cannot reliably match: scale, geography, energy resources, and the capacity to shape continental connectivity and long-term regional balance. That doesn’t mean they are ideologically aligned with Tehran or willing to fully underwrite it. In fact, both have shown caution, balancing ties with Arab Persian Gulf states and avoiding deep entanglement. But if the strategic question becomes which actor is more likely to endure and anchor a stable regional order over time, Iran as a deeply rooted polity with significant demographic and geographic weight seems to be, for them, a more durable and stabilizing bet than a US-backed Israeli hegemonic model reliant on sustained external support, limited regional integration, and a trajectory that ensures ongoing conflict with its neighbors and perpetual instability. So from Beijing and Moscow’s perspective, and perhaps for other regional and global powers as well, the issue is not choosing Iran outright, but hedging toward a regional order where Iran is accommodated as a central pole rather than attempting to exclude it in favor of a US-backed Israeli model. That’s the real crux of this conflict, and it remains to be seen whether Trump is willing to reimagine US-Iran relations along these lines. At present, there is little to suggest that he is. 4:47AM 14 April 2026

During the Cold War, the, forty-five years of the Cold War, America, on average, was attacking, foreign countries about 2.5 times per year.
Once the Soviet Union collapsed in ninety, that went up to almost 3.5 - 3.7 times year, and that's about a 50% increase in the countries that America bombed or attacked or overturned. 5:01AM 14 April 2026


3. Iranians were divided, with some favoring and some opposing the US and Israel
- Now Iranians are united against the US and Israel 4. US military bases had pretended to be assets - Now they’ve been exposed as liabilities 5. Murdering an entire govt was considered a very bad thing - Now it’s fine, the US set a precedent for everyone 6. The Gulf states pretended to be loyal to the global family of Islam, not US/Israel - Now everyone knows the opposite is true 7. The “allies” thought the US valued them - Now they know the US is destroying them 8. US citizens used to spend nothing on Iran - Now they’re bleeding US$30 billion on that country 9. Peace negotiations used to be sacrosanct - Now we know the US says its okay to kill negotiators. 10. The world suspected the US was a murderous rogue regime - Now we know it’s true. 9:58AM 14 April 2026

I am fed up with such speeches. Turkiy did not come forward when Iran was attacked by the USA and Israel. War decides the fate of the people. The United Nations failed to provide peace and stability. China and Russia did not challenge the USA and Israel, while America and Europe openly financed Ukraine against Russia and supplied war equipment to Ukraine. Erdogan's speech is of no significance when the Shia community was bombed by the USA and Israel. This serves only a peaceful ideology to remain faithful to the Muslim community.
— Hind Receb was only 6 years old. While searching for a safe place with her relatives, their vehicle was struck by Israeli forces. Her uncle, her aunt, her cousins... Everyone had died; only she had survived. For a full 12 days, she waited helplessly to be rescued. "Will you come to get me? I'm scared," she pleaded, waiting for a helping hand to reach her for 12 long days. — Despite the level our world has reached, despite the technology at our fingertips; despite our massive institutions with thousands of staff under their roofs and enormous budgets; as an 8-billion-strong human family, we unfortunately failed to save a 6-year-old girl child, a wounded sparrow fluttering before our very eyes. — Hundreds of children in Gaza have died to this day—and continue to die—because they couldn't find a morsel of dry bread, a sip of water, a bowl of soup. In Gaza, it's not just children who are dying; the United Nations system is dying, the truth is dying, the values that the West claims to defend are dying, and humanity's hopes for a more just world are dying one by one. — O human rights organizations! Aren't the people in Gaza, the people in the West Bank, human too? Don't Palestinian children have the right to read, to live, to play in the streets? — O international press organizations! Aren't the journalists Israel slaughters live on air, the ones whose offices it storms, your colleagues? — O United Nations Security Council! What more are you waiting for to halt the Gaza genocide, to say "Stop" to this oppression, this barbarity? — What more are you waiting for to stop this massacre network that endangers the lives of its own citizens alongside the Palestinian people, that drags the entire region into war for its political ambitions?
— O those who give unconditional support to Israel! How much longer will you bear the shame of watching this massacre, of being complicit in this savagery? 1:04PM 14 April 2026

China News 中国新闻网 on X: "Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday put forward a four-point proposal on promoting peace and stability in the Middle East, when meeting with Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, in Beijing. The proposal includes https://t.co/Ik4USyvQUL" / X The proposal includes adherence to the principle of peaceful coexistence, adherence to the principle of national sovereignty, adherence to the principle of international rule of law, and adherence to the coordination of development and security. 3:55PM 14 April 2026

First, adhere to the principle of peaceful coexistence. The countries of the Middle East, including the Gulf states, are neighbors that rely on one another and cannot be relocated geographically. It is essential to support the countries of the Middle East, including the Gulf states, in improving their interrelations, and to promote the establishment of a shared, integrated, cooperative, and sustainable security framework in the Middle East and Gulf region, thereby laying a solid foundation for peaceful coexistence. Second, adhere to the principle of state sovereignty. Sovereignty is a fundamental pillar for the survival and development of all countries in the world, especially the numerous developing nations, and it must not be infringed upon. The sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity of the countries of the Middle East, including the Gulf states, must be respected in earnest, and the safety of individuals, facilities, and institutions of all countries must be protected through concrete actions. Third, adhere to the principle of international rule of law. It is essential to uphold the authority of the international rule of law, and it must not be exploited selectively, nor should the world be dragged back to an era governed by the law of the jungle. It is necessary to steadfastly safeguard the international system centered on the United Nations, the international order based on international law, and the fundamental norms of international relations predicated on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.
Fourth, adhere to the principle of balancing development and security. Security is a prerequisite for development, and development is a guarantee for security. All parties should create a favorable environment and inject positive energy into the development of the countries of the Middle East, including the Gulf states. The Chinese side is ready to share the opportunities of China's modernization model with the countries of the Middle East, including the Gulf states, and to enrich the soil for development and security in the region. 5:04PM 14 April 2026

中華人民共和国駐日本国大使館 on X: "就美方表示将封锁霍尔木兹海峡，外交部发言人郭嘉昆13日在例行记者会上答问时表示，霍尔木兹海峡是重要的国际货物和能源贸易通道，维护该地区的安全稳定和畅通符合国际社会共同利益。海峡通航受阻的根源在于伊朗战事，解决这一问题的出路是尽快停火止战。各方应该保持冷静和克制。中方愿继续发挥积极建 https://t.co/NkT95UGTjo" / X Regarding the US side's statement that it will blockade the Strait of Hormuz, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jia Kun stated during the regular press conference on the 13th that the Strait of Hormuz is an important international channel for cargo and energy trade, and maintaining security, stability, and smooth passage in the region serves the common interests of the international community. The root cause of disruptions to navigation in the strait lies in the Iranian conflict; the way forward to resolve this issue is to achieve a ceasefire and halt hostilities as soon as possible. All parties should remain calm and exercise restraint. China is willing to continue playing a positive and constructive role. 6:33PM 14 April 2026

13 April 2026

Negotiations failed and reported on 12 April 2026. Trump may adopt tactics of hubris or just withdraw by saying that USA won the war. Let us see what others write about it. 

Abbas Araghchi: "Why did we insist on uranium enrichment?"
I recommend you read it: - "Why have we insisted—and continue to insist—so much on enrichment (uranium)? Why are we unwilling to give it up, even if war is imposed upon us? Because no one has the right to tell us what we should or should not possess. This is based on the principle of rejecting domination (nefy-i sulte). Enrichment is my right under the laws, and whether I exercise that right or not concerns only me. The narrative that's been told to us for years and still continues—'You have no right to enrich; enrichment must be zero'... Why? 'Because we're concerned,' they say. If you're concerned, we're ready to address those concerns. Is there a question? We'll answer it. Is trust lacking? We'll build trust. But no one has the right to say to us, 'You can't have this because I don't want you to.' This is the secret of our movement that's persisted for years; we've been insistent about our own rights. Enrichment is important, but even more important is proving that the Islamic Republic of Iran takes no orders from anyone and submits to no domination. If there are any questions or uncertainties regarding the goals of Iran's peaceful nuclear program, we're ready to provide answers and dispel that uncertainty. The path to that is solely through diplomacy. They've tried other paths and gotten nowhere. Negotiations will only reach a conclusion when the rights of the Iranian people are acknowledged, respected, and we can exercise our right. We're not waiting for anyone to recognize our right; our right is already legitimate in and of itself, our right exists. What we want is for our right to be respected." 
In my view, this statement by Abbas Araghchi is not just a dignified response to the United States, but to the condescending mentality they've represented toward us Muslims for nearly a century. This response is a declaration that the era of your bullying and dictating values has come to a close. If Iran emerges from this war with its honor intact, then—God willing—neither will the United States be the old United States, nor will Muslims be the old Muslims. 1:25AM 13 April 2026

 Will Walldorf on X: "The breakdown of the Iran negotiations reveals a lot about Trump's thinking. And, what we're seeing does not look good at all. Since the early days of the Iran war, I've argued that based upon history and Trump's personality, there are two ways Trump could go here. He" / X He could follow his own pragmatic, convention-busting style and stop this war when it became obvious that continuing it was getting too costly and not in the US national interest. This was the course Trump rightly followed last year when he backed down and decided to end the war against the Houthis in Yemen.
The other option is to fall into the "hubris of power" (which I discuss in this piece). This tends to happen to the stronger side in asymmetric wars like the one against Iran today. In short, this occurs when the stronger side gets deluded into thinking that just a little more force here or there will do the trick to get the weaker side to cave. As the logic goes, how could they not cave since we've destroyed this, that or the other and still have more we can destroy and more bombs locked and loaded, ready to go? Leaders caught in the hubris of power tend to obsess then over tactical gains -- ie blowing things up -- and also tend to think they have more leverage than they really do against the weaker side. After the failed talks yesterday, it's clear Trump is still locked in the hubris of power. First, he's still fixated on the tactical side and the disparity in power. What did he do after talks failed? Went right back to strong arming by force with a blockade of the strait and threats that any Iranian who fires on US vessels will be "BLOWN TO HELL!" (all caps his, not mine). By blocking the Strait, Trump will make gas prices spike for Americans and further deteriorate his political position at home. Nonsensical for sure, but the fact he's willing to do that is not reassuring at all. Instead, it illustrates just how far into the hubris of power Trump has fallen -- i.e., just a little more force will do the trick. Second, the hubris of power is evident -- once again -- in US negotiating tactics. Instead of coming in with some humility recognizing the mess the US is in, it appears Vance et al didn't take Iran's 10 point terms seriously (as promised by Trump on Tuesday), but AGAIN put forward the same old maximalist surrender terms they've been using for the last year. As Vance said afterward, Iran "chose not to accept our terms." That again is the hubris of power talking. Real negotiations involve give and take.  
The hubris of power is hard for the strong to escape. It's why the US fought for so long in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Trump is not obligated to do the same. He can choose otherwise and stop this war before it's too late. Let's hope for the sake of us all, he wakes up to that reality before it's too late.2:18 AM 13 April 2026 Trump risks falling in to the ‘asymmetric resolve’ trap in Iran − just as presidents before him did elsewhere

 Kellie Meyer on X: "NEW I’m told these are the US red lines for Iran: A U.S. official tells me: - End all uranium enrichment - Dismantle all major nuclear enrichment facilities - Retrieve highly enriched uranium - Accept a broader peace, security and de-escalation framework that includes" / X framework that includes regional allies - End funding for terrorist proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis - Fully open the Strait of Hormuz, charging no tolls for passage 3:11AM 13 April 2026




🔸As the Supreme Leader also said in his message, this presence greatly helped us defend the rights of the Iranian nation and had an even greater effect on the other side in better understanding and recognizing our revolution, which I personally witnessed. 🔸We had very intensive, serious, and challenging talks; our delegation, benefiting from capable experts who were present, with a comprehensive and diverse approach alongside team cooperation, designed very positive initiatives to show Iran's goodwill, which led to progress in the negotiations. 🔸 On Trump's recent remarks: such threats have no effect on the Iranian nation. We have proven that this is not just a slogan, and the world has seen it with its own eyes. We have shown everyone how desperate the enemy of the Iranian nation has become. We have proven that we will not surrender to threats, and the Iranian nation has demonstrated this in practice over 47 years of its revolution in all military arenas, economic sanctions, political pressure, and the like. 🔸If America wants to find an exit window for itself, as I said, the only way is to decide to gain the trust of the Iranian nation. You are indebted to the Iranian nation and still have a lot of effort to make up for past mistakes. 
🔸If you fight, we will fight, and if you come with logic, we will respond with logic. We will not succumb to any threat; test our will once again to receive an even greater lesson. 6:24AM 13 April 2026


U.S. Central Command on X: "U.S. to Blockade Ships Entering or Exiting Iranian Ports " / X  U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, in accordance with the President’s proclamation.
The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.
Additional information will be provided to commercial mariners through a formal notice prior to the start of the blockade. All mariners are advised to monitor Notice to Mariners broadcasts and contact U.S. naval forces on bridge-to-bridge channel 16 when operating in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches. 6:52AM 13 April 2026



Other Key Takeaways: The United States and Iran did not reach an agreement during talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11 and 12. US President Donald Trump emphasized on April 12 that Iran’s delegation did not make compromises on its nuclear program, but that he believed Iran would return to negotiations. Iran sought an all-encompassing agreement that would have transformed US-Iran relations in fundamental ways, while the United States appeared focused on specific issues related to freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program. The multiple competing Iranian factions with divergent priorities and objectives in negotiations that were part of the Iranian delegation also likely made reaching an agreement exceptionally difficult. 
Iran has not fired any munitions targeting the Gulf states since ISW-CTP’s last data cut off on April 11. Iranian fired a declining rate of missiles and drones targeting Gulf states since the ceasefire went into effect on April 8. 8:05AM 13 April 2026

🔹Both sides have blamed the other, but neither has closed the door to diplomacy. JD Vance and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf both avoided ruling out further engagement. 🔹This reflects the high stakes involved. While tensions remain unresolved, neither Tehran nor Washington currently appears eager to escalate into open conflict. 🔹At the same time, both sides continue to adhere to maximalist positions, each convinced it holds the upper hand and can dictate the terms of any eventual agreement. 🔹Three core issues appear to have blocked progress. 🔹First, Iran’s insistence on maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran views not just as a bargaining chip, but as its most credible enforcement guarantee for any future agreement. 🔹Second, Washington’s continued insistence on its pre-war demands regarding Iran’s nuclear program, namely zero enrichment inside Iran and the transfer of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium abroad. 🔹Third, Iran’s insistence on linking any agreement to broader regional dynamics, particularly involving Lebanon, and rejecting any deal that is not comprehensive across all fronts. 🔹From Tehran’s perspective, the United States is attempting to achieve diplomatically what it failed to secure militarily. 🔹Iranian analysts argue that Washington was unable to eliminate Iran’s nuclear assets, failed to dismantle its regional network, and now faces a new structural challenge, i.e., persistent disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. 🔹This has reinforced a perception of relative strength in Tehran. As a result, Iran is unwilling to compromise on issues for which it has already paid significant costs. 🔹This is especially true of the Strait. Iranian officials increasingly view formal guarantees – such as non-aggression commitments – as insufficient, particularly under Donald Trump. Instead, they prioritize leverage that is materially enforceable. 🔹On the nuclear issue, Iran continues to reject zero enrichment as unacceptable. 🔹A possible compromise, as I have previously discussed, would involve a temporary suspension of enrichment, paired with recognition of Iran’s right to resume it later. But this doesn’t seem to have been accepted by Washington. 🔹Similarly, Tehran is unlikely to transfer its stockpile upfront. Any steps in that direction would be incremental and conditioned on reciprocal U.S. concessions. 🔹At its core, the dispute is about sequencing. Washington seeks immediate Iranian commitments while offering gradual relief. Tehran views this asymmetry as fundamentally unacceptable. 🔹In response to the collapse of talks, Donald Trump announced a naval blockade targeting Iran’s oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. 🔹However, in Iran, this threat is widely seen as operationally challenging to implement. Enforcing a blockade would require U.S. forces to operate closer to Iranian shores, significantly increasing their exposure. 🔹Mine-clearing operations and maritime enforcement would face similar vulnerabilities, raising doubts about the feasibility of sustained interdiction. 🔹There is also a third-party dimension. Intercepting vessels linked to China, for example, would lead to major escalation risks, further undermining the credibility of the blockade. 🔹At the same time, Iranian officials are increasingly concerned about the risk of targeted strikes against senior leadership. 🔹There is a growing perception that Israel may seek to exploit the current moment to carry out decapitation operations once again, particularly given the visibility of senior figures during the Islamabad talks. 🔹From Tehran’s perspective, such a move would almost certainly trigger an immediate return to war. 🔹At the same time, in Tehran, skepticism toward negotiations remains visible, particularly among hardliners. 🔹Many interpret the talks as a delaying tactic by the United States and Israel, and an effort to buy time and prepare for a more decisive round of military action. 🔹In this context, a growing strand of analysis suggests that, if war resumes, Iran will/should abandon its previous strategy of attrition. Instead, it may pursue a more concentrated and escalatory approach aimed at forcing a rapid conclusion. 🔹This could include closing both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (through the Houthis), alongside expanding its missile target set against Israel. 🔹In this vein, some analysts argue that future operations should extend to a broader range of targets – including civilian targets in Israel – reflecting the belief that previous approach failed to establish sufficient deterrence. 🔹At the same time, many Iranian analysts assess that the likelihood of renewed conflict is now higher than the chances of the ceasefire holding. 🔹A key variable is Israel, which is widely seen in Tehran as likely to resume military operations following the collapse of talks. 🔹In such a scenario, Iran’s position is increasingly clear: it will not distinguish between the United States and Israel. In other words, any renewed conflict would likely trigger a broader response targeting both. 🔹Ultimately, the situation is being framed in Tehran in binary terms. 🔹Either a comprehensive ceasefire holds across all fronts, or any return to hostilities will escalate into a wider regional confrontation. 
🔹For now, neither war nor diplomacy has prevailed. What has emerged instead is a fragile equilibrium, which may prove increasingly difficult to sustain.8:42AM 13 April 2026

Not to go back to the JCPOA again (I realize folks are tired of hearing it), but it’s important to remember why those talks worked. The U.S. was willing to meet Iran half-way by offering a face-saving measure such as limited, controlled enrichment verified by international inspectors. Ceding this point had just as much to do with cinching the deal as U.S. economic sanctions did. Perhaps even more.  
Point being: concessions aren’t necessarily bad. Short of outright victory, they’re actually required to end wars (assuming, of course, you really want to end them).   9:30AM 13 April 2026

How Trump Weakened America with Four Actions 1- He did not seek Congress's approval, nor reach an understanding with allies, nor convince the public of the war's merit. Netanyahu convinced Trump that the Iranian people would revolt after the strikes, but the Director of Central Intelligence told him that would not happen, and he did not listen to him. He did not plan to prevent the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and did not devise a plan to seize the enriched uranium. The war has given Iran the opportunity to close the Strait of Hormuz; closing it costs nothing—only one mine is needed—while opening it requires immense force and troops on the ground. The only solution to open it is a large international alliance, and Trump is not the right person to lead this alliance. 2- America used a massive amount of advanced weapons and will need years to replenish the stockpile, and it withdrew defense systems from allies like South Korea. 3- America's allies lost trust in it and in its leadership: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia, Western Europe—and they are now organizing themselves as a major power that does not rely on America. At the same time, the Gulf countries felt betrayed by Trump and neglected in terms of their security and safety. 4- America had a special allure, not just because of its wealth and great opportunities for success, but because it was the land of freedom, democracy, and free competition. America has lost that due to Trump's actions and statements, and those of the Secretary of War, which the world considers war crimes. 
!!! This is the opinion of the masses of journalists at the New York Times 2:38PM 13 April 2026

  Dr. Brahma Chellaney on X: "In return for prohibiting pursuit of nuclear weapons, the NPT, through its Article IV, explicitly grants non-nuclear-weapons states the "inalienable right" to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, including the "nuclear fuel cycle" — specifically uranium enrichment." / X Today, Germany, the Netherlands, Japan and Brazil operate active uranium enrichment programs, including maintaining enriched uranium stockpiles. Brazil enriches uranium to a higher level than the other three states for a nuclear-powered submarine program, consistent with the NPT allowing enrichment even for naval propulsion.
Yet the dealbreaker in the U.S.-Iran talks was the U.S. insistence that Tehran agree to permanently stop enriching uranium under IAEA safeguards to even less than 5% purity.  
The plain fact is that zero enrichment is not required to prevent Iran from building the bomb, as long as IAEA inspectors are monitoring Iranian compliance with its safeguards agreement.   5:17 PM 13 April 2026



 Iranian News "Indian tankers transiting through the Strait of Hormuz did not pay tolls to Iran, Tehran’s ambassador to New Delhi said on Monday, after US President Donald Trump vowed to block passage for vessels making payments to Iran.
“You can ask the Indian government if we have charged anything up to now,” Ambassador Mohammad Fathali told reporters at a briefing at Iran’s embassy. 
“In this difficult time, we have good relations. We believe Iran and India share common interests and a common fate,” he added  https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/2043675960118055061  11:01PM 13 April 2027 

12 April 2026

Iran and the USA are negotiating for peace and stability in the Gulf states. Pakistan is hosting these leaders from the USA and Iran. 
On one side, diplomatic means are adopted; on the other side, the USA and Iran are preparing for war in case peace negotiations fail. In this blog, I shall add the timeline of war preparations and peace negotiations. 
Can Iran trust the motives of the USA? 





Bottom line

The coming weeks are not about a negotiation from US strength or even primarily over ending a war (which would take Israel’s agreement). They are over whether control of Iran’s growing economic control over the world’s economies becomes a new foundation of enduring global power—and whether the United States can disrupt that shift before it consolidates. 

Ahead of the Curve: What We Got Right—and What the Pakistan Talks Now Decide

Live with Prof Robert Pape: The Decision That Could Make This War Unwinnable

Live with Prof Robert Pape Live Briefing: Iran, the Escalation Trap, and What Happens Next

Ignorance, the root and stem of all evil on X: "🇮🇷🪖 🇮🇱For Israel, Iran war now borders on the cataclysmic – Mearsheimer Israel dragged the US into a war with Iran which has been a complete disaster, says Professor John Mearsheimer. Rather than collapsing, Iran has emerged stronger, boosting its ‘Axis of Resistance’. Polls https://t.co/5PlmbRFzd7" / X Polls show that support for Israel among the US public has fallen dramatically. Israel didn’t so much shoot itself in the foot—but in the head. 4:22AM 12 April 2026 https://x.com/i/status/2043037042318135407

 Blunt on X: "Listen up, Trump, and every dumb fuck in Washington who still thinks the Strait of Hormuz is some kind of American parking lot. This aint international waters. Never was. Never will be. Under the law of the sea, every coastal country gets twelve nautical miles of its own goddamn" / X  goddamn territorial water. The narrowest choke point in Hormuz is only twenty-one miles wide. That means Iran and Oman own the whole fucking strait from shore to shore. Overlapping. Locked. Closed. No high seas. No open ocean free for all. || Iran controls the big islands too, Qeshm, Hormuz, Larak, Abu Musa, the whole chain. You sail through; you are in somebody else's house. ||Iran never even signed that UNCLOS treaty, so they don't have to play your transit passage game. They say innocent passage, and they mean it. You bring guns, or you bring trouble; they can say no. ||America starts wars because it never learned geography in school. They bomb first, read the map later. Before you drag us into another bloodbath, open a fucking atlas. The water belongs to the land that touches it. Not to the country that prints the most dollars. ||Learn it now or bleed for it later. 5:19AM 12 April 2026

US Talks in Islamabad: An Assessment of Day 1 🔹What makes the Islamabad Talks particularly significant is its level. This is the highest-ranking diplomatic engagement between Iran and the U.S. in more than four decades, and the first in several years to take the form of direct negotiations. 🔹Despite that, the early dynamics of the talks have already made clear that the central issue is not procedural, but substantive. In this case, it is the Strait of Hormuz. 🔹Iran insists that it does not intend to return to the pre-war status quo in the strait. It has reportedly rejected proposals for joint control and continues to frame the issue as one of sovereign authority and not a negotiable arrangement. 🔹Developments during the day reinforced just how central this issue is. Donald Trump claimed that the U.S. had already begun securing the strait, including mine-clearing operations, with reports that American warships had successfully transited the waterway. 🔹The Iranian side denied the reports. According to Tehran’s account, U.S. warships approached the strait but were warned off by Iranian forces, with officials in Islamabad reportedly informed that such actions could jeopardize the negotiations. 🔹Some maritime tracking data appears to support elements of this version, indicating that at least one U.S. vessel reversed course after approaching the strait. The episode effectively tested the boundaries of what each side is willing to tolerate. 🔹From one perspective, this may have been an attempt by Washington to gauge Iran’s flexibility; specifically, whether Tehran would be willing to compromise on control over the strait in order to preserve the talks. 🔹The outcome suggests the opposite. Iran appears to view this issue as non-negotiable at this stage, even at the risk of complicating or potentially undermining the negotiations track. 🔹Alongside Hormuz, Lebanon remains a second major point of contention. Iranian officials continue to insist that any ceasefire must be regional in scope, explicitly including Lebanon. However, Israeli strikes, particularly in the south, have continued, complicating this position. 🔹At the same time, Iranian narrative has increasingly blamed the Lebanese government, criticizing it for engaging with Israel through U.S.-facilitated channels and thereby undermining Tehran’s efforts to impose a broader ceasefire framework. 🔹Within this framing, parallel diplomatic tracks are not only ineffective, but also structurally designed to exclude Iran and limit its influence over the outcome. 🔹This is particularly sensitive because Tehran is not only seeking a ceasefire, but also aiming to shape its terms and claim political credit for it. Israel, for its part, appears intent on preventing the emergence of any unified, multi-front framework linking Lebanon to the broader conflict. 🔹Meanwhile, the talks themselves have extended over several hours, with reports pointing to sustained engagement at both the political and technical levels. 🔹This dynamic can be read in two ways. On the one hand, the willingness of both sides to remain at the table suggests a shared interest in exploring the possibility of an agreement. 🔹On the other hand, the length and intensity of the discussions also reflect the complexity of the issues involved, particularly as negotiations move beyond general principles into technical details, where disagreements tend to become more entrenched. 🔹Under these conditions, the most realistic/optimistic near-term outcome would be a framework agreement rather than a comprehensive deal. 🔹Such an outcome would likely be accompanied by an extension of the ceasefire, buying time for both sides to negotiate the more contentious elements. 🔹Meanwhile, one of the more striking aspects of the talks so far is what does not appear to be at the center of the discussion. 🔹Despite earlier statements by Trump that the nuclear issue constitutes “99%” of the problem, reporting from both Iranian and non-Iranian sources suggests that the primary sticking points are Hormuz and Lebanon. 🔹This points to a potential mismatch in how each side is framing the negotiations publicly, and possibly in how they are prioritizing issues internally. 🔹It remains unclear whether Iran is attempting to leverage its control over the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for concessions on the nuclear file, or whether the linkage between these issues is more indirect. 🔹What is clear, however, is that the current phase of negotiations is being driven more by immediate strategic considerations than by the longer-standing nuclear dispute. 🔹This is also reflected in Iran’s evolving position on the issue of frozen assets. 🔹Initially, Ghalibaf’s demand was widely interpreted as referring to roughly $6 billion held in restricted accounts following earlier arrangements. However, Iranian state media has since expanded this figure significantly. 🔹According to these accounts, approximately $27 billion in Iranian assets remain frozen across multiple jurisdictions, including funds held in Europe, the Persian Gulf, and Asia, largely as a result of U.S. sanctions. 🔹Framed in this way, the issue is no longer a limited concession, but a central component of any potential agreement, elevating it to the level of a core bargaining demand. 🔹At the same time, the idea of trading concessions on the nuclear program for gains elsewhere, particularly on Hormuz, has drawn criticism within Iran. 🔹Some commentators argue that uranium enrichment should not be treated as a bargaining chip, but as a sovereign right and a key element of Iran’s long-term strategic development. 🔹From this perspective, any significant compromise on enrichment would carry implications that extend well beyond the current negotiations. 🔹That said, this line of argument may also point toward a possible middle ground. Iran could, in principle, agree to limit or temporarily suspend its enrichment activities while securing formal recognition of its right to do so, alongside concessions on other issues. 🔹Such a formulation would allow Tehran to preserve its core claim to nuclear sovereignty while still creating space for a negotiated outcome. 🔹At the same time, Iranian interpretations of Israeli behavior suggest a growing concern that external actors are actively working to undermine the talks. 🔹Continued strikes in Lebanon, combined with statements by Netanyahu regarding the possibility of further action against Iran’s nuclear program in the future, are being read as attempts to raise the costs of compromise. 🔹Within this framework, even in the event of a framework agreement, there is a widespread expectation in Iran that Israeli actions could still disrupt the process. 🔹This could take the form of political pressure on Washington to limit its commitments, or clandestine operations designed to provoke an Iranian response and break the ceasefire. 🔹At the same time, developments on the ground suggest that both sides are preparing for the possibility that diplomacy may fail. 🔹On the Iranian side, there are indications of efforts to restore missile infrastructure and reconstitute capabilities damaged during the war, alongside reports of potential Chinese support in air defense. 🔹Estimates that Iran retains a substantial ballistic missile inventory further reinforce the perception that it continues to maintain significant strike capacity. 🔹On the other side, open-source reporting points to a noticeable increase in U.S. and Israeli logistical activity in the lead-up to the talks, including multiple heavy transport aircraft delivering equipment to bases across the region.  

🔹In that sense, diplomacy seems to be moving forward, but it is doing so alongside parallel preparations for conflict. The talks in Islamabad are not simply an attempt to resolve the crisis, but part of a broader process in which negotiation and escalation remain deeply intertwined.   7:28AM 12 April 2026

 hello world on X: "美伊谈判细节来了，谁才是真想解决问题这一方？美方代表团 11 号当天才匆匆赶到，万斯下飞机后先睡了 4 个小时倒时差，等他出现在谈判会场时，伊朗团队已经把首轮谈判要点都列好了。 有知情人士透露，美方连谈判议程都没提前和巴方确认，还是临时照着伊朗提出的框架来，这仓促的样子，和他们 300 https://t.co/uc3fB1cGkx" / X  Here come the details of the US-Iran talks: Who’s really the one wanting to solve the problem? The US delegation only rushed in on the 11th, and after Vance got off the plane, he first slept for 4 hours to adjust to the time difference. By the time he showed up at the negotiation venue, the Iranian team had already laid out all the key points for the first round of talks. \\ An informed source revealed that the US side hadn’t even confirmed the negotiation agenda with the Iranian side in advance—they just went along with the framework Iran proposed on the fly. This hasty vibe really doesn’t match the big show they brought with their 300-person team. \\ The negotiation documents the US brought were just a thin few pages, all full of general principles, while the Iranian team’s file boxes were packed with detailed data and draft agreements. Just the technical explanations on nuclear facility safety alone ran over 120 pages. Anyone with eyes can see at a glance who’s put in the solid prep work and who’s actually keen to hammer out a result. || 10:12AM 12 April 2026

 Esmaeil Baqaei on X: "دیپلماسی برای ما ادامه جهاد مقدس مدافعان ایران زمین است. تجربه بدعهدی‌ها و بدسگالی‌های آمریکا را فراموش نکرده و نمی‌کنیم. همانطور که جنایات شنیع ارتکابی آنها و رژیم صهیونیستی در جریان جنگ‌های تحمیلی دوم و سوم را نخواهیم بخشید. امروز روز پر کار و طولانی برای هیات نمایندگی جمهوری" / X Diplomacy for us is the continuation of the sacred jihad of the defenders of the Iranian land. We have not forgotten and will not forget the experiences of America's breaches of promise and malicious acts. Just as we will not forgive the heinous crimes committed by them and the Zionist regime during the course of the second and third imposed wars.

Today was a busy and long day for the delegation of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Islamabad. The intensive negotiations that began from the morning of Saturday with Pakistan's benevolent efforts and mediation have continued without interruption until now, and numerous messages and texts have been exchanged between the two sides. The Iranian negotiators are employing all their capabilities, experience, and knowledge to safeguard Iran's rights and interests. The heavy loss of our great elders, dear ones, and fellow countrymen has made our resolve to pursue the Iranian nation's interests and rights firmer than ever before.

Nothing can or should deter us from pursuing our great historical mission toward our beloved homeland and noble Iranian civilization. The Islamic Republic of Iran is determined to utilize all tools, including diplomacy, to secure national interests and protect the country's well-being. In the past 24 hours, discussions were held on various dimensions of the main negotiation topics, including the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear issue, war reparations, lifting of sanctions, and the complete end to the war against Iran and in the region. The success of this diplomatic process depends on the seriousness and good faith of the opposing side, refraining from excessive demands and unlawful requests, and the acceptance of Iran's legitimate rights and interests. 

We express our appreciation to the government and the warm-hearted and noble people of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan for hosting the negotiations and their benevolent efforts in advancing this process.  10:29AM 12 April 2026

 Institute for the Study of War on X: "NEW: Iran and the United States have fundamentally different interpretations of the ongoing negotiations, which will generate friction. Iran seeks an all-encompassing agreement that will end the threat of war with the United States, while the United States seeks a much narrower https://t.co/4je7Gj4cVp" / X narrower agreement centered on the current war. The US delegation, led by US Vice President JD Vance and including US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, appears to be pursuing a narrow, issue-specific negotiation focused on de-escalatory mechanisms around the Strait of Hormuz, and reportedly secondary matters like detainees.

Iran is using the existence of an unknown number of naval mines it laid in the Strait of Hormuz to force ships to use Iranian territorial waters to traverse the Strait, which enables Iran to shakedown these ships for fees while the ships are in Iranian territorial waters. This protection racket is illegal under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Iran likely designed its threatening behavior and its shakedowns to disrupt the global economy, which Iran calculates will enable it to extract concessions from the United States. Iran warned merchant ships that mines could exist in a “hazardous area” that covers 1,394 sq km of the Strait, including the normal traffic separation scheme (shipping lanes) that ships use to transit the Strait.

The current ceasefire will provide Iran an opportunity to reorganize its missile force and recover from the temporary disruption wrought to the missile force during constant US and Israeli operations. Consistent US and Israeli operations over Iran had suppressed Iran’s missile force by preventing Iran from digging out launchers, disrupting command-and-control, and creating pervasive fear in military units that made them unwilling or unable to conduct attacks, as ISW-CTP has previously assessed. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei continues to recover from severe facial and leg injuries that he sustained in the February 28 strike on the supreme leader’s compound in Tehran Province. Three unspecified individuals close to Mojtaba’s inner circle told Reuters on April 11 that the strike disfigured Mojtaba’s face and injured one or both of his legs. 

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) may be helping Iran to reconstitute some of its degraded air defense capabilities during the current ceasefire. The PRC is preparing to deliver man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) to Iran within the coming weeks, according to three sources familiar with recent US intelligence assessments. 11:38AM 12 April 2026

Vijay Gokhale on X: "My piece in today’s Times of India. https://t.co/vpvjW5PtiM" / X  12:49PM 12 April 2026  

 The Hindu on X: "A Pakistani military contingent comprising around 13,000 soldiers and 10 to 18 jets has reached Saudi Arabia as part of a joint strategic defence agreement signed last year, the Gulf Kingdom announced on Saturday (April 11, 2026). https://t.co/gFu36lPKeS" / X 12:55PM 12 April 2026 

Chairman Rabbit on X: "The United States and Iran have both stated that the negotiations have failed. Each side is now going its own way. No immediate need for another round of talks, as they would serve no real purpose. In truth, there never was any genuine "negotiation". Both sides simply paused" / X paused to exchange their respective conditions - for the counterpart to see, for their own domestic audiences, as courtesy to the mediators, and for the world to witness. "Look, we made an effort to de-escalate and pursue peace. We are not the ones destroying peace."

But they could not reach an agreement - because there was simply no overlap between their positions. The core issues included the Strait of Hormuz (a new problem that emerged during this war) and Lebanon (an old problem that developed in parallel with the conflict). Of course, all the other longstanding issues were also on the table: Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities, the lifting of sanctions, and everything in between. Iran's principle is clear: through this war, it seeks to obtain the rights and capabilities that any sovereign state should possess - including nuclear sovereignty. And the lifting of sanctions is intended to allow Iran to reintegrate into the international economy. The United States, however, is unwilling to grant these. Not on the Strait of Hormuz, not on withdrawing from the Middle East, not on a ceasefire in Lebanon - and certainly not on granting Iran the full capabilities of a sovereign state. For Washington, conceding such capabilities would amount to admitting defeat. This was never an equal negotiation. It was not about the imbalance of power, but about fundamentally incompatible conditions. One side (the US) wants to maintain the other's humiliating and subordinated status, keeping it pinned down. The other side (Iran) sees this war as the moment to finally stand up. As background, Netanyahu continues to push domestically for further war against Iran and large-scale bombing in Lebanon. For Israel, the sole objective is to sabotage the negotiations. Although Israel is not at the negotiating table, through years of influence it has already preset America's "red lines" - such as the prohibition on uranium enrichment (not nuclear weapons, but enrichment itself). No one on the U.S. negotiating team is in a position to walk back these red lines or meet Iran halfway. When you set goals that the other side can never accept, negotiations are doomed to fail. This logic applies to both the United States, and Iran. And this is precisely the script Israel most wants to see played out. Both Washington and Tehran have prepared to walk away from the table, and both are eager to show the world that they are willing and able to do so. In doing this, they are demonstrating their capability, resolve, resilience, bargaining power, and strength. As the saying goes, they are still locked in a contest of wills.
What happens next? The lesson from the Russia-Ukraine battlefield is clear: the terms of peace are not negotiated at the table - they are decided on the battlefield. If talks fail, it simply means the fighting has not yet been sufficient.For the United States, this is a conventional war: it must win, or it loses.For Iran, this is an asymmetric economic war: as long as it does not lose, it wins. 

And the whole world has already been drawn into the conflict in one form or another. A "world war" is already underway - except for the countries not directly fighting, it is manifesting as a brutal economic war. 1:02PM 12 April 2026

 DD Geopolitics on X: "🇮🇷🇵🇰🇺🇸Pakistani Defense Minister following Islamabad talks: Several rounds of intense and constructive negotiations continued for twenty-four hours between US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf, mediated by Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir. https://t.co/EGoc8vENHN" / X Marshal Asim Munir. Pakistan expresses gratitude to both sides for appreciating its mediatory role.|| "We hope that the two sides continue with the positive spirit to achieve durable peace and prosperity for the entire region and beyond. It is imperative that the parties continue to uphold their commitment to the ceasefire."|| Pakistan will continue facilitating engagement and dialogue between Iran and the United States in the days to come. 1:44PM 12 April 2026

Al Mayadeen English on X: "Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said that an understanding was reached on several issues during the negotiations, while noting that differences remained on two or three key topics, ultimately preventing a final agreement. He added that it should not have https://t.co/CAltmzsueF" / X have been expected from the outset to reach a deal in a single session, especially as new issues, such as the Strait of Hormuz and regional developments, were added to the agenda. 1:53PM 12 April 2026 

ANI on X: "#WATCH | Lucknow: On no agreement between Iran and US after 21 hours of talks in Pakistan's Islamabad, Islamic Centre Of India, Chairman, All India Muslim Personal Law Board Member, Maulana Khalid Rashid Firangi Mahali says, "It is a matter of great concern that the talks between https://t.co/yk2KBfek2U" / X the talks between Iran and the US have not reached any positive conclusion and have completely failed. And now the time has come for the United Nations and the OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) to intervene and resolve this issue through full dialogue, because resolving this issue is essential for global peace..." 1:55PM 12 April 2026

 China pulse 🇨🇳 on X: "We will RETURN to the United States WITHOUT an AGREEMENT with Iran, said U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance. ⭕️ We are leaving with a very simple proposal and a framework that represents our final offer. ⭕️ We negotiated for several hours, and the Iranians chose not to respond to https://t.co/QMwea0Sry1" / X respond to our demands. ⭕️ There were shortcomings in the talks, and we were highly flexible and made every possible effort. ⭕️ We need to see a clear commitment from the Iranians not to pursue nuclear weapons.  ⭕️ The Pakistani delegation is doing an excellent job in bringing viewpoints closer together. 1:56PM 12 April 2026

 ANI on X: "#WATCH | Delhi: On no agreement between Iran and US after 21 hours of talks in Pakistan's Islamabad, All India Muslim Personal Law Board Vice President Maulana Syed Mohsin Taqvi says, "...If Iran is insisting that Lebanon should be included in this, that Palestine should also be https://t.co/F0V69R3z4E" / X  should also be included, then this is absolutely acceptable. That is because Iran does not have any border disputes with Israel. Iran's ongoing conflict with Israel is only about Palestine and Lebanon. It bombs them whenever it wants. So, Iran cannot back down from this issue... Talks should be held, and solutions should be found through dialogue." 3:28PM 12 April 2026

10 April 2026

Lukas Ekwueme on X: "Markets are delusional we’ve already lost: - ~30% of fertilizers - ~20% of LNG - ~14% of oil - ~30% of helium Any one of these on its own would be enough to trigger a crisis. Together, they form a systemic shock that risks pulling the global economy into a serious recession. https://t.co/0fLr90MHwD" / X  How the Iran War is affecting our daily lives, explained by this graph.


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