Bottom line
The coming weeks are not about a negotiation from US strength or even primarily over ending a war (which would take Israel’s agreement). They are over whether control of Iran’s growing economic control over the world’s economies becomes a new foundation of enduring global power—and whether the United States can disrupt that shift before it consolidates.
Ahead of the Curve: What We Got Right—and What the Pakistan Talks Now Decide
Live with Prof Robert Pape: The Decision That Could Make This War Unwinnable
Live with Prof Robert Pape Live Briefing: Iran, the Escalation Trap, and What Happens Next
Ignorance, the root and stem of all evil on X: "🇮🇷🪖 🇮🇱For Israel, Iran war now borders on the cataclysmic – Mearsheimer Israel dragged the US into a war with Iran which has been a complete disaster, says Professor John Mearsheimer. Rather than collapsing, Iran has emerged stronger, boosting its ‘Axis of Resistance’. Polls https://t.co/5PlmbRFzd7" / X Polls show that support for Israel among the US public has fallen dramatically. Israel didn’t so much shoot itself in the foot—but in the head. 4:22AM 12 April 2026 https://x.com/i/status/2043037042318135407
Blunt on X: "Listen up, Trump, and every dumb fuck in Washington who still thinks the Strait of Hormuz is some kind of American parking lot. This aint international waters. Never was. Never will be. Under the law of the sea, every coastal country gets twelve nautical miles of its own goddamn" / X goddamn territorial water. The narrowest choke point in Hormuz is only twenty-one miles wide. That means Iran and Oman own the whole fucking strait from shore to shore. Overlapping. Locked. Closed. No high seas. No open ocean free for all. || Iran controls the big islands too, Qeshm, Hormuz, Larak, Abu Musa, the whole chain. You sail through; you are in somebody else's house. ||Iran never even signed that UNCLOS treaty, so they don't have to play your transit passage game. They say innocent passage, and they mean it. You bring guns, or you bring trouble; they can say no. ||America starts wars because it never learned geography in school. They bomb first, read the map later. Before you drag us into another bloodbath, open a fucking atlas. The water belongs to the land that touches it. Not to the country that prints the most dollars. ||Learn it now or bleed for it later. 5:19AM 12 April 2026
US Talks in Islamabad: An Assessment of Day 1
What makes the Islamabad Talks particularly significant is its level. This is the highest-ranking diplomatic engagement between Iran and the U.S. in more than four decades, and the first in several years to take the form of direct negotiations.
Despite that, the early dynamics of the talks have already made clear that the central issue is not procedural, but substantive. In this case, it is the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran insists that it does not intend to return to the pre-war status quo in the strait. It has reportedly rejected proposals for joint control and continues to frame the issue as one of sovereign authority and not a negotiable arrangement.
Developments during the day reinforced just how central this issue is. Donald Trump claimed that the U.S. had already begun securing the strait, including mine-clearing operations, with reports that American warships had successfully transited the waterway.
The Iranian side denied the reports. According to Tehran’s account, U.S. warships approached the strait but were warned off by Iranian forces, with officials in Islamabad reportedly informed that such actions could jeopardize the negotiations.
Some maritime tracking data appears to support elements of this version, indicating that at least one U.S. vessel reversed course after approaching the strait. The episode effectively tested the boundaries of what each side is willing to tolerate.
From one perspective, this may have been an attempt by Washington to gauge Iran’s flexibility; specifically, whether Tehran would be willing to compromise on control over the strait in order to preserve the talks.
The outcome suggests the opposite. Iran appears to view this issue as non-negotiable at this stage, even at the risk of complicating or potentially undermining the negotiations track.
Alongside Hormuz, Lebanon remains a second major point of contention. Iranian officials continue to insist that any ceasefire must be regional in scope, explicitly including Lebanon. However, Israeli strikes, particularly in the south, have continued, complicating this position.
At the same time, Iranian narrative has increasingly blamed the Lebanese government, criticizing it for engaging with Israel through U.S.-facilitated channels and thereby undermining Tehran’s efforts to impose a broader ceasefire framework.
Within this framing, parallel diplomatic tracks are not only ineffective, but also structurally designed to exclude Iran and limit its influence over the outcome.
This is particularly sensitive because Tehran is not only seeking a ceasefire, but also aiming to shape its terms and claim political credit for it. Israel, for its part, appears intent on preventing the emergence of any unified, multi-front framework linking Lebanon to the broader conflict.
Meanwhile, the talks themselves have extended over several hours, with reports pointing to sustained engagement at both the political and technical levels.
This dynamic can be read in two ways. On the one hand, the willingness of both sides to remain at the table suggests a shared interest in exploring the possibility of an agreement.
On the other hand, the length and intensity of the discussions also reflect the complexity of the issues involved, particularly as negotiations move beyond general principles into technical details, where disagreements tend to become more entrenched.
Under these conditions, the most realistic/optimistic near-term outcome would be a framework agreement rather than a comprehensive deal.
Such an outcome would likely be accompanied by an extension of the ceasefire, buying time for both sides to negotiate the more contentious elements.
Meanwhile, one of the more striking aspects of the talks so far is what does not appear to be at the center of the discussion.
Despite earlier statements by Trump that the nuclear issue constitutes “99%” of the problem, reporting from both Iranian and non-Iranian sources suggests that the primary sticking points are Hormuz and Lebanon.
This points to a potential mismatch in how each side is framing the negotiations publicly, and possibly in how they are prioritizing issues internally.
It remains unclear whether Iran is attempting to leverage its control over the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for concessions on the nuclear file, or whether the linkage between these issues is more indirect.
What is clear, however, is that the current phase of negotiations is being driven more by immediate strategic considerations than by the longer-standing nuclear dispute.
This is also reflected in Iran’s evolving position on the issue of frozen assets.
Initially, Ghalibaf’s demand was widely interpreted as referring to roughly $6 billion held in restricted accounts following earlier arrangements. However, Iranian state media has since expanded this figure significantly.
According to these accounts, approximately $27 billion in Iranian assets remain frozen across multiple jurisdictions, including funds held in Europe, the Persian Gulf, and Asia, largely as a result of U.S. sanctions.
Framed in this way, the issue is no longer a limited concession, but a central component of any potential agreement, elevating it to the level of a core bargaining demand.
At the same time, the idea of trading concessions on the nuclear program for gains elsewhere, particularly on Hormuz, has drawn criticism within Iran.
Some commentators argue that uranium enrichment should not be treated as a bargaining chip, but as a sovereign right and a key element of Iran’s long-term strategic development.
From this perspective, any significant compromise on enrichment would carry implications that extend well beyond the current negotiations.
That said, this line of argument may also point toward a possible middle ground. Iran could, in principle, agree to limit or temporarily suspend its enrichment activities while securing formal recognition of its right to do so, alongside concessions on other issues.
Such a formulation would allow Tehran to preserve its core claim to nuclear sovereignty while still creating space for a negotiated outcome.
At the same time, Iranian interpretations of Israeli behavior suggest a growing concern that external actors are actively working to undermine the talks.
Continued strikes in Lebanon, combined with statements by Netanyahu regarding the possibility of further action against Iran’s nuclear program in the future, are being read as attempts to raise the costs of compromise.
Within this framework, even in the event of a framework agreement, there is a widespread expectation in Iran that Israeli actions could still disrupt the process.
This could take the form of political pressure on Washington to limit its commitments, or clandestine operations designed to provoke an Iranian response and break the ceasefire.
At the same time, developments on the ground suggest that both sides are preparing for the possibility that diplomacy may fail.
On the Iranian side, there are indications of efforts to restore missile infrastructure and reconstitute capabilities damaged during the war, alongside reports of potential Chinese support in air defense.
Estimates that Iran retains a substantial ballistic missile inventory further reinforce the perception that it continues to maintain significant strike capacity.
On the other side, open-source reporting points to a noticeable increase in U.S. and Israeli logistical activity in the lead-up to the talks, including multiple heavy transport aircraft delivering equipment to bases across the region.
In that sense, diplomacy seems to be moving forward, but it is doing so alongside parallel preparations for conflict. The talks in Islamabad are not simply an attempt to resolve the crisis, but part of a broader process in which negotiation and escalation remain deeply intertwined. 7:28AM 12 April 2026
hello world on X: "美伊谈判细节来了，谁才是真想解决问题这一方？美方代表团 11 号当天才匆匆赶到，万斯下飞机后先睡了 4 个小时倒时差，等他出现在谈判会场时，伊朗团队已经把首轮谈判要点都列好了。 有知情人士透露，美方连谈判议程都没提前和巴方确认，还是临时照着伊朗提出的框架来，这仓促的样子，和他们 300 https://t.co/uc3fB1cGkx" / X Here come the details of the US-Iran talks: Who’s really the one wanting to solve the problem? The US delegation only rushed in on the 11th, and after Vance got off the plane, he first slept for 4 hours to adjust to the time difference. By the time he showed up at the negotiation venue, the Iranian team had already laid out all the key points for the first round of talks. \\ An informed source revealed that the US side hadn’t even confirmed the negotiation agenda with the Iranian side in advance—they just went along with the framework Iran proposed on the fly. This hasty vibe really doesn’t match the big show they brought with their 300-person team. \\ The negotiation documents the US brought were just a thin few pages, all full of general principles, while the Iranian team’s file boxes were packed with detailed data and draft agreements. Just the technical explanations on nuclear facility safety alone ran over 120 pages. Anyone with eyes can see at a glance who’s put in the solid prep work and who’s actually keen to hammer out a result. || 10:12AM 12 April 2026
Esmaeil Baqaei on X: "دیپلماسی برای ما ادامه جهاد مقدس مدافعان ایران زمین است. تجربه بدعهدیها و بدسگالیهای آمریکا را فراموش نکرده و نمیکنیم. همانطور که جنایات شنیع ارتکابی آنها و رژیم صهیونیستی در جریان جنگهای تحمیلی دوم و سوم را نخواهیم بخشید. امروز روز پر کار و طولانی برای هیات نمایندگی جمهوری" / X Diplomacy for us is the continuation of the sacred jihad of the defenders of the Iranian land. We have not forgotten and will not forget the experiences of America's breaches of promise and malicious acts. Just as we will not forgive the heinous crimes committed by them and the Zionist regime during the course of the second and third imposed wars.
Today was a busy and long day for the delegation of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Islamabad. The intensive negotiations that began from the morning of Saturday with Pakistan's benevolent efforts and mediation have continued without interruption until now, and numerous messages and texts have been exchanged between the two sides. The Iranian negotiators are employing all their capabilities, experience, and knowledge to safeguard Iran's rights and interests. The heavy loss of our great elders, dear ones, and fellow countrymen has made our resolve to pursue the Iranian nation's interests and rights firmer than ever before.
Nothing can or should deter us from pursuing our great historical mission toward our beloved homeland and noble Iranian civilization. The Islamic Republic of Iran is determined to utilize all tools, including diplomacy, to secure national interests and protect the country's well-being. In the past 24 hours, discussions were held on various dimensions of the main negotiation topics, including the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear issue, war reparations, lifting of sanctions, and the complete end to the war against Iran and in the region. The success of this diplomatic process depends on the seriousness and good faith of the opposing side, refraining from excessive demands and unlawful requests, and the acceptance of Iran's legitimate rights and interests.We express our appreciation to the government and the warm-hearted and noble people of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan for hosting the negotiations and their benevolent efforts in advancing this process. 10:29AM 12 April 2026
Institute for the Study of War on X: "NEW: Iran and the United States have fundamentally different interpretations of the ongoing negotiations, which will generate friction. Iran seeks an all-encompassing agreement that will end the threat of war with the United States, while the United States seeks a much narrower https://t.co/4je7Gj4cVp" / X narrower agreement centered on the current war. The US delegation, led by US Vice President JD Vance and including US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, appears to be pursuing a narrow, issue-specific negotiation focused on de-escalatory mechanisms around the Strait of Hormuz, and reportedly secondary matters like detainees.
Iran is using the existence of an unknown number of naval mines it laid in the Strait of Hormuz to force ships to use Iranian territorial waters to traverse the Strait, which enables Iran to shakedown these ships for fees while the ships are in Iranian territorial waters. This protection racket is illegal under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Iran likely designed its threatening behavior and its shakedowns to disrupt the global economy, which Iran calculates will enable it to extract concessions from the United States. Iran warned merchant ships that mines could exist in a “hazardous area” that covers 1,394 sq km of the Strait, including the normal traffic separation scheme (shipping lanes) that ships use to transit the Strait.
The current ceasefire will provide Iran an opportunity to reorganize its missile force and recover from the temporary disruption wrought to the missile force during constant US and Israeli operations. Consistent US and Israeli operations over Iran had suppressed Iran’s missile force by preventing Iran from digging out launchers, disrupting command-and-control, and creating pervasive fear in military units that made them unwilling or unable to conduct attacks, as ISW-CTP has previously assessed. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei continues to recover from severe facial and leg injuries that he sustained in the February 28 strike on the supreme leader’s compound in Tehran Province. Three unspecified individuals close to Mojtaba’s inner circle told Reuters on April 11 that the strike disfigured Mojtaba’s face and injured one or both of his legs.The People’s Republic of China (PRC) may be helping Iran to reconstitute some of its degraded air defense capabilities during the current ceasefire. The PRC is preparing to deliver man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) to Iran within the coming weeks, according to three sources familiar with recent US intelligence assessments. 11:38AM 12 April 2026
Vijay Gokhale on X: "My piece in today’s Times of India. https://t.co/vpvjW5PtiM" / X 12:49PM 12 April 2026
Chairman Rabbit on X: "The United States and Iran have both stated that the negotiations have failed. Each side is now going its own way. No immediate need for another round of talks, as they would serve no real purpose. In truth, there never was any genuine "negotiation". Both sides simply paused" / X paused to exchange their respective conditions - for the counterpart to see, for their own domestic audiences, as courtesy to the mediators, and for the world to witness. "Look, we made an effort to de-escalate and pursue peace. We are not the ones destroying peace."
But they could not reach an agreement - because there was simply no overlap between their positions. The core issues included the Strait of Hormuz (a new problem that emerged during this war) and Lebanon (an old problem that developed in parallel with the conflict). Of course, all the other longstanding issues were also on the table: Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities, the lifting of sanctions, and everything in between. Iran's principle is clear: through this war, it seeks to obtain the rights and capabilities that any sovereign state should possess - including nuclear sovereignty. And the lifting of sanctions is intended to allow Iran to reintegrate into the international economy. The United States, however, is unwilling to grant these. Not on the Strait of Hormuz, not on withdrawing from the Middle East, not on a ceasefire in Lebanon - and certainly not on granting Iran the full capabilities of a sovereign state. For Washington, conceding such capabilities would amount to admitting defeat. This was never an equal negotiation. It was not about the imbalance of power, but about fundamentally incompatible conditions. One side (the US) wants to maintain the other's humiliating and subordinated status, keeping it pinned down. The other side (Iran) sees this war as the moment to finally stand up. As background, Netanyahu continues to push domestically for further war against Iran and large-scale bombing in Lebanon. For Israel, the sole objective is to sabotage the negotiations. Although Israel is not at the negotiating table, through years of influence it has already preset America's "red lines" - such as the prohibition on uranium enrichment (not nuclear weapons, but enrichment itself). No one on the U.S. negotiating team is in a position to walk back these red lines or meet Iran halfway. When you set goals that the other side can never accept, negotiations are doomed to fail. This logic applies to both the United States, and Iran. And this is precisely the script Israel most wants to see played out. Both Washington and Tehran have prepared to walk away from the table, and both are eager to show the world that they are willing and able to do so. In doing this, they are demonstrating their capability, resolve, resilience, bargaining power, and strength. As the saying goes, they are still locked in a contest of wills.And the whole world has already been drawn into the conflict in one form or another. A "world war" is already underway - except for the countries not directly fighting, it is manifesting as a brutal economic war. 1:02PM 12 April 2026
DD Geopolitics on X: "🇮🇷🇵🇰🇺🇸Pakistani Defense Minister following Islamabad talks: Several rounds of intense and constructive negotiations continued for twenty-four hours between US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf, mediated by Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir. https://t.co/EGoc8vENHN" / X Marshal Asim Munir. Pakistan expresses gratitude to both sides for appreciating its mediatory role.|| "We hope that the two sides continue with the positive spirit to achieve durable peace and prosperity for the entire region and beyond. It is imperative that the parties continue to uphold their commitment to the ceasefire."|| Pakistan will continue facilitating engagement and dialogue between Iran and the United States in the days to come. 1:44PM 12 April 2026
Al Mayadeen English on X: "Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said that an understanding was reached on several issues during the negotiations, while noting that differences remained on two or three key topics, ultimately preventing a final agreement. He added that it should not have https://t.co/CAltmzsueF" / X have been expected from the outset to reach a deal in a single session, especially as new issues, such as the Strait of Hormuz and regional developments, were added to the agenda. 1:53PM 12 April 2026
ANI on X: "#WATCH | Lucknow: On no agreement between Iran and US after 21 hours of talks in Pakistan's Islamabad, Islamic Centre Of India, Chairman, All India Muslim Personal Law Board Member, Maulana Khalid Rashid Firangi Mahali says, "It is a matter of great concern that the talks between https://t.co/yk2KBfek2U" / X the talks between Iran and the US have not reached any positive conclusion and have completely failed. And now the time has come for the United Nations and the OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation) to intervene and resolve this issue through full dialogue, because resolving this issue is essential for global peace..." 1:55PM 12 April 2026
China pulse 🇨🇳 on X: "We will RETURN to the United States WITHOUT an AGREEMENT with Iran, said U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance. ⭕️ We are leaving with a very simple proposal and a framework that represents our final offer. ⭕️ We negotiated for several hours, and the Iranians chose not to respond to https://t.co/QMwea0Sry1" / X respond to our demands. 
There were shortcomings in the talks, and we were highly flexible and made every possible effort. We need to see a clear commitment from the Iranians not to pursue nuclear weapons. The Pakistani delegation is doing an excellent job in bringing viewpoints closer together. 1:56PM 12 April 2026
ANI on X: "#WATCH | Delhi: On no agreement between Iran and US after 21 hours of talks in Pakistan's Islamabad, All India Muslim Personal Law Board Vice President Maulana Syed Mohsin Taqvi says, "...If Iran is insisting that Lebanon should be included in this, that Palestine should also be https://t.co/F0V69R3z4E" / X should also be included, then this is absolutely acceptable. That is because Iran does not have any border disputes with Israel. Iran's ongoing conflict with Israel is only about Palestine and Lebanon. It bombs them whenever it wants. So, Iran cannot back down from this issue... Talks should be held, and solutions should be found through dialogue." 3:28PM 12 April 2026
